The XRP price is trading near $1.04 after extending its broader downtrend and slipping toward the lower boundary of its weekly descending channel. While the price continues to face pressure and remains below a key resistance zone near $1.20–$1.30, on-chain and derivatives data are beginning to tell two different stories.
Network activity on the XRP Ledger has started picking up again, hinting at improving user participation and growing spot demand. At the same time, futures market activity has been cooling, suggesting leveraged traders are stepping back amid uncertainty. This divergence places XRP at a critical point, where holding the current support could trigger a recovery, while another breakdown may strengthen the bearish trend further.
XRP On-Chain Activity Picks Up as User Participation Recovers
XRP’s on-chain activity has started showing signs of recovery after a sharp slowdown in mid-June. According to the latest data, daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have climbed back above 43,000, recovering from a low of nearly 28,000 recorded around June 20. That marks a jump of more than 53% in less than two weeks, signaling a clear rise in network participation.
What makes this setup more interesting is that XRP is still trading near $1.04, close to a key support zone. The rise in on-chain activity at these lower levels suggests spot buyers may be quietly stepping in, which could strengthen the base for a potential recovery if broader market sentiment improves.
Open Interest Declines as Leverage Leaves the Market
While XRP’s on-chain activity has been improving, the derivatives market is showing the opposite trend. Data from major exchanges show that open interest has fallen from nearly $990 million at the start of June to around $803 million, marking a decline of almost 19% over the past month.
This drop suggests that a large portion of leveraged positions has been closed, reducing speculative activity around XRP. In many cases, falling open interest during a price decline suggests traders are stepping out rather than aggressively betting on a recovery. With XRP still holding near $1.04, the next price move will likely depend on whether spot demand can absorb the lack of derivatives support.
Can Rising Network Activity Trigger a Breakout?
XRP’s weekly price structure remains under pressure after the token slipped below its key order block support zone around $1.15–$1.20, signaling that buyers have failed to defend an important demand region. The price is now trading near $1.04, closer to the lower boundary of its broader descending channel, which keeps the bearish structure intact. The next major support now sits near the psychological $1.00 level, and a breakdown below that could expose the broader demand zone between $0.50 and $0.32.
Moreover, the MACD remains under a bearish influence and is heading for a bearish crossover, as momentum weakens. With this, the price is believed to maintain a strong descending trend and eventually hit the lower support of the descending parallel channel. The key level to watch now is whether XRP can reclaim the lost $1.15–$1.20 zone or continue sliding toward lower support.
Key Levels to Monitor
- Immediate Resistance: $1.15 – $1.20
- Major Resistance Zone: $1.20 – $1.30
- Immediate Support: $1.00
- Major Demand Zone: $0.50 – $0.32
- Bullish Recovery Trigger: Above $1.20
- Upside Targets: $1.70 – $2.00
- Bearish Breakdown Trigger: Below $1.00
Will XRP Price Recover After the Recent Breakdown?
The XRP price is currently at a critical stage as the token trades below its former order block support, keeping the broader bearish structure in play. While the recovery in active addresses points to improving network participation and growing spot demand, the steady decline in open interest shows that leveraged traders remain cautious.
For now, the $1.00 support remains the most important level to watch. Holding above it could give bulls a chance to reclaim the lost $1.15–$1.20 range and attempt a broader recovery. However, if XRP fails to defend this zone, the downside pressure could intensify, opening the door for a move toward the $0.50–$0.32 demand area. The coming sessions may be crucial in deciding whether XRP can stabilize or extend its downtrend further.
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