Bitcoin is poised to close its third consecutive negative quarter, approaching one of the rare periods in its history. This picture was previously seen only in 2014, 2019 and 2022. Although the recent weak trend has weighed on investor sentiment, some market observers think that the final stage of the correction may be approaching.
Historical data attracts attention
Market analyst Henry states that Bitcoin lost three consecutive quarters in 2014, 2019 and 2022, and that after these periods, there was first a decline and then a recovery in the following quarters. According to Henry, historical precedent shows that poor quarterly performance does not always mean permanent decline.
Henry emphasizes that three consecutive quarters of loss in Bitcoin have only been seen in 2014, 2019 and 2022 in the past, and that a recovery occurred in the following quarters after these periods.
In the same evaluation, the strong past performance for the last quarter of the year is also highlighted. Bitcoin rose 215% in the fourth quarter of 2017 and 168% in the same period of 2020. Meanwhile, Ethereum is on track to decline for three consecutive quarters for the first time since its launch.
| Presence | Period | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2014, 2019, 2022 | 3 negative quarters in a row |
| Bitcoin | 2017 4th quarter | 215% increase |
| Bitcoin | 2020 4th quarter | 168% increase |
| Ethereum | Current view | Possibility of loss for 3 consecutive quarters for the first time |
Critical threshold stands out in the technical view
Analyst BATMAN notes that Bitcoin has retested the main support zone where the 2023 rise began. The price is trading near the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel. The fact that the weekly RSI indicator has returned to the historical demand zone is among the factors closely monitored from a technical perspective.
According to BATMAN, if Bitcoin can stay above $ 68,000, above $ 140,000 may come to the fore again if a similar market structure is repeated. The BTC/USDT weekly chart shows that the long-term uptrend is maintained after the 2022 bottom.
BATMAN points out that if Bitcoin holds above $68,000, over $140,000 may be possible with the repetition of the same structure.
After the breakout from the large falling wedge formation, it is considered possible that the price will first retest $ 100,000, then head towards $ 120,000 and then the range between $ 150,000 and $ 160,000.
Mini dictionary: RSI is a technical indicator that measures the speed and strength of price movement. Falling wedge, on the other hand, is observed as a formation that indicates the possibility of recovery if a structure that is narrowing downwards breaks upwards.
On-chain data points to supply at a loss
Market observer Whale Factor reports that the loss of Bitcoin supply has reached an all-time high. Accordingly, more than 10 million BTC changed hands below its value in the last transaction. A limited recovery was later seen in the data.
This increase indicates that many investors who bought at levels close to previous peaks are still at a loss. Similar supply density was previously seen in Bitcoin’s 2018, 2020 and 2022 sales waves, followed by a recovery. Analysts evaluate that the current retreat may also be compatible with the cycle of distribution, accumulation and expansion.
