Bitcoin price is trading in a narrow band between strong support in the $58,000 region and the important liquidity area near $62,500. While it is considered that an upward attempt may come to the fore in the short term, some analysts warn that a deeper correction may be required for the formation of a permanent bottom.
Past cycles point to deeper pullbacks
Previous major Bitcoin declines that analysts have compared have seen an 87.15 percent pullback in the 2015 cycle, an 84.08 percent pullback in the 2018 cycle, and a 78.07 percent pullback in the 2022 cycle. The fact that the current correction is more limited compared to these examples has raised questions about whether the market has really bottomed.
Bitcoin is trading around $60,100 after pulling back from the last cycle top. The analyst in question predicts that a decline of approximately 50 percent may not be enough to form a full bottom, and a deeper retreat in the range of 60 percent to 65 percent may be seen before the next major bottom is formed.
Compared to the sharp declines seen in previous bear markets, the current pullback remains limited, indicating that a permanent bottom formation in Bitcoin may not be complete yet.
However, it also appears that decline rates gradually decrease with each market cycle. If this trend continues, Bitcoin may not have to crash as hard as it did in the past. A stronger recovery from current levels may weaken the expectation of a deeper correction.
| Loop | Retreat |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 87.15% |
| 2018 | 84.08% |
| 2022 | 78.07% |
While the $58,000 support is maintained, $62,500 stands out
On the short-term outlook, Bitcoin remains sideways as attempts to permanently sink below the $58,000 region have failed. According to the analyst, these repeated unsuccessful attempts indicate that passive receivers are still active in the region in question.
The main target on the upside stands out as the $62,500 level. The heat map shows that the high volume node and liquidity cluster are concentrated in this region. As long as Bitcoin continues to remain stuck on the support, it is considered possible that the price will move to this area first.
While $58,000 maintains its main support position, $62,500 is watched as the main liquidity target to which the price can move in the short term.
However, the analyst thinks that the possible upward liquidity cleanup may not be permanent. After taking the $62,500 region, Bitcoin can be expected to weaken again and test the $56,000 to $58,000 range once again.
At this stage, the prominent levels remain clear. While $58,000 is being watched as the main support zone, $62,500 is being watched as the next upside liquidity target.
