According to the over-the-counter trading desk of market maker Wintermute, Bitcoin and Ether are falling towards the lower end of their recent trading ranges. In the company’s note shared on Wednesday, it was stated that last week’s hawkish FED messages and the news flow originating from Iran put pressure on the two assets. Wintermute is known as one of the leading companies providing liquidity in the crypto market.
The short-term band is narrowing in the market
Pricing in the options market indicates a relatively limited movement expectation for the next 24 hours. According to Wintermute’s one-day straddle indicator, the expected range for Bitcoin is $61,242 to $63,563, and for Ether it is $1,606 to $1,694. This pricing corresponds to a volatility of approximately 1.9% in Bitcoin and 2.7% in Ether.
In Wintermute’s note, it was emphasized that Bitcoin and Ether are approaching the lower limit of their last trading ranges, and the direction in the market is shaped between the FED’s tight stance and geopolitical headlines.
According to the company’s assessment, the market base is weakening. The increased correlation between tokens indicates that assets are moving with the general market direction rather than their own underlying dynamics. In addition, it was stated that liquidity thinned as we entered the summer months, and there was no sign of new institutional demand in spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
| Presence | 24 hour expected interval | expected movement |
| Bitcoin | $61,242 to $63,563 | 1.9% |
| ether | $1,606 to $1,694 | 2.7% |
The $59,000 level stands out
Wintermute noted that if the current pressure continues, the main level to watch is $59,000. In the note, this area was described as the bottom of the bear market and also the key support point. Therefore, if the short-term pressure deepens, the market’s approach to this level will be closely monitored.
While the company describes the $ 59,000 level as the bottom of the bear market, it states that this region stands out as critical support if the sales pressure continues.
Three headlines to watch for the rest of the week
There are three main factors that can affect pricing for the rest of the week. The first of these is the permanence of the peace agreement between the USA and Iran. The second headline is the PCE data, which is one of the inflation indicators that the FED monitors most closely and will be announced on Thursday. The third element is the quarterly option maturity that will occur at the end of the month.
Mini dictionary: PCE is an inflation indicator known as the personal consumption expenditure price index. The FED closely monitors this data in its policy decisions while evaluating the course of price pressures.
In the market note, it was stated that the quarterly option expiry could magnify price movements when moving or closing large positions. Therefore, in a low liquidity environment, the futures effect combined with data flow and geopolitical developments is likely to increase volatility until the end of the week.
