Bitcoin gave back most of its recent gains on Thursday. The price remained under pressure after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates constant but indicated that a tighter monetary policy could be followed for the remainder of 2026.
FED messages changed market expectations
The market’s largest crypto asset fell 2.8% to $63,964 in early trading. While the rate decision itself was in line with expectations, investors’ focus shifted to the Fed’s updated guidance. Due to persistent inflation pressures, the possibility of at least one 25 basis point interest rate increase by the end of the year has been priced more strongly.
FED President Kevin Warsh stated that from now on, the institution will react more to incoming economic data rather than giving strong guidance on interest rate cuts or increases, and that they are determined to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Higher interest rates weaken the appetite for assets generally seen as risky. Therefore, bitcoin could not escape the selling pressure even though some other market segments recovered. According to CME FedWatch data, the expectation of at least a quarter point increase before the end of 2026 stood out in the market.
Risk appetite increased, but digital assets lagged behind
It was reported that a framework peace agreement was reached between the USA and Iran after remote contacts and that it aims to restore access to important maritime trade routes. This development supported the risk-taking tendency in global markets.
However, it was stated that the area that benefited most from this optimism was not digital assets, but artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. The cryptocurrency market displayed a weaker outlook during this period.
The 200-week average is viewed as a critical threshold
Bitcoin is currently trading just above its 200-week simple moving average. This technical level roughly coincides with the $62,358 region. It has been observed that the price fell below this threshold for a short time in the last two weeks, but rose above it again during weekly closings.
Mini glossary: The 200-week simple moving average is a long-term technical indicator that shows the average of an asset’s closing prices over the last 200 weeks. It is often viewed as major support or trend threshold in the market.
Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo noted that weekly closes below this level have been extremely rare since mid-2017. According to the data shared by Perfumo, investors who purchased in periods below this average received a median return of 113% after one year and a median return of 313% after two years in past cycles.
| Indicator | Level or result |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $63,964 |
| 200 week average | $62,358 |
| Median return after 1 year | 113% |
| Median return after 2 years | 313% |
Perfumo also noted that the median time to zero loss for purchases below this indicator was only two days, while the median maximum loss in the following 12 months remained at 9%. Kraken is known as one of the major cryptocurrency exchanges operating on a global scale.
According to Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, periods when bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week average have historically been limited in number, and purchases from this area have produced remarkable returns in previous market cycles.
In contrast, analyst Ted Pillows argued that bitcoin could once again form a lower peak in the second half of 2026, followed by a harsher selling wave. This assessment stood out as a more pessimistic scenario that contrasted with the positive historical picture regarding the 200-week average.
