The peace agreement between the USA and Iran reached over the weekend and the news that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened created a strong wave of relief in global markets. While there was a decline of more than 4 percent in oil, copper rose, MSCI Asia Pacific index made a 3 percent premium and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index reached a record level. On the other hand, the reaction in crypto assets was more limited.
The rise in the crypto market remained limited
While the CoinDesk 20 index has been horizontal since midnight, it increased by 2.4 percent in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin remained below $66,000 and failed to gain any significant momentum after midnight, following a 3.4 percent gain over the weekend. Ether painted a similar picture. In smaller altcoins, the movement was slightly stronger; CoinDesk 80 index increased by 1.5 percent in the same period.
It is considered that the market’s cautious stance is due to the fact that previous ceasefire attempts were not permanent. The ceasefire in April was broken in a short time, and another agreement on June 9 fell apart after the US attacks. In both cases, Bitcoin had given back its initial relief rally. For this reason, it seems that investors are not willing to strongly price an agreement that will not be formalized until the end of the week.
The crypto market is reacting to geopolitical developments in the absence of a new sector-specific catalyst; However, due to the breakdown of previous ceasefires, investors are now approaching this topic more cautiously.
Appetite in derivatives markets is increasing, but not aggressive
Data in derivative markets pointed to a gradual recovery of institutional interest. Bitcoin open position size increased by approximately 7 percent compared to a week ago, reaching $17.4 billion. The three-month annualized base rate also increased from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent.
In contrast, funding rates remained in the annualized range of 0 percent to minus 4 percent on many platforms. This outlook showed that although the open position and base rate increased, there was no strong demand in leveraged perpetual futures transactions. The picture is also mixed on the options front. Although put weight has been prominent in the last 24 hours, implied volatility showed no obvious signs of stress. Deribit’s DVOL index fell 3.4 percent during the day, falling to the level of 39.
According to Coinglass data, a total of $343 million worth of positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. 27 percent of this consisted of long positions and 73 percent consisted of short positions. Bitcoin ranked first in liquidation size with $136 million, while Ether ranked first with $60 million. Binance data showed that the $66,100 level was watched as an important liquidation zone in a possible rise.
Censorship resistance story in artificial intelligence tokens comes to the fore
One of the remarkable movements in the market was seen in decentralized artificial intelligence tokens. Venice’s VVV token rose nearly 14 percent to $16.37 on Saturday after the United States asked Anthropic to cut off foreign access to its two most advanced models under export control rules. Transaction volume also increased by approximately 200 percent, approaching 130 million dollars. Morpheus’s MOR token reached $2.28 with a premium of approximately 21 percent.
Mini dictionary: Anthropic is a technology company that develops generative artificial intelligence models. Export control refers to government regulations that limit the access of certain technologies to foreign persons or countries.
Anthropic announced that the Ministry of Commerce requested that access be cut off for the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, and that it temporarily closed both models to all users. The company said the issue was a narrow issue related to the way the model’s security measures were circumvented and that it was working to reverse the situation.
Anthropic announced that the Ministry of Commerce wanted foreigners to cut off access to its new models based on export control rules, and that the company temporarily disabled two models for this reason.
Erik Voorhees, founder of Venice and one of the founders of ShapeShift, said after this development, “There is a reason why we built Venice.” The Morpheus side also highlighted its unauthorized artificial intelligence approach. However, transaction data indicated that price action was shaped around the censorship resistance narrative rather than the technical capability of the products.
