Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated that the $ 59,000 level for Bitcoin is the bottom point of the 2025 cycle after the recent sharp sales in the cryptocurrency market. Kendrick maintained his target of $100,000 in Bitcoin and $4,000 in Ethereum by the end of the year.
ETF exits and SpaceX impact came to the fore
According to Kendrick, the main reasons for the latest selling wave were the accelerated outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and the need for cash before the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin dropped to $59,375 on June 5. This level marked a 53% decline from the $126,000 peak seen on October 6.
In his evaluation, Kendrick stated that the crypto winter is over and that the recovery process in the market has begun.
A total outflow of more than $5.72 billion has been recorded in spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA since the second week of May. Kendrick noted market observations that some investors are closing their ETF positions to fund the SpaceX IPO.
SpaceX is known as Elon Musk’s space and rocket company. The company’s shares began trading on Nasdaq on Friday at around $150. It was reported that after the public offering, the shares rose approximately 26% above the issue price in a short time.
Mini glossary: Spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund that gives investors access to price action without holding Bitcoin directly. Public offering means that a company offers its shares for sale on the stock exchange for the first time.
Kendrick expects this particular liquidity pressure to ease once the IPO process is completed. According to him, this development may contribute to the revival of inflows to spot ETFs and the $ 59,000 level to stand out as a more solid base.
Expectation of macro pressure easing
The analyst pointed out the possible easing in geopolitical tensions as the second factor that could support the recovery. It was evaluated that the possible US-Iran agreement, which was on the agenda in the G7 circle, could limit the rise in oil prices. Lower oil prices could reduce pressure on US bond yields, creating a more favorable backdrop for crypto assets.
The barrel price of Brent oil was traded at levels close to 87 dollars, and West Texas crude oil was traded at levels close to 85 dollars. Although US President Donald Trump said that an agreement with Iran was possible, he later stated that the conditions revealed to the public on Truth Social did not reflect the agreed framework and called on the Tehran administration to take quick steps.
Despite the uncertainty, Kendrick kept his year-end targets unchanged and noted that Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the short term if market conditions stabilize.
Kendrick also stated that he watches three indicators to confirm the market base. These included Strategy announcing a new Bitcoin purchase on Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows again on a daily basis, and international oil prices continuing their decline throughout the week. At the time the note was published, Bitcoin was trading just below $64,000.
