According to new research from Galaxy Digital, the lowest level of this cycle in Bitcoin is likely to occur at higher prices compared to previous bear markets. In the report, the possible bottom zone was pointed out between $62,000 and the realized price of the network, $53,600. In the evaluation, it was stated that the intense speculative movements seen in previous cycles were more limited this time, which may have differentiated the price structure.
Narrowing declines in four-year cycle
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, examined Bitcoin’s past cycle peaks and bottoms and stated that the four-year structure remained largely consistent with historical timing. Accordingly, the declines from peak to bottom narrowed from 85 percent and 84 percent in the first periods to 77 percent in 2022 and to 51 percent in the 2026 cycle.
According to Thorn, the peak seen in October 2025 was a marked departure from previous cycles. Only 2 of 11 traditional top indicators showed signals. The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which is closely watched in the market, did not work for the first time. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, also remained at 2.29. This rate peaked between 2.93 and 5.91 in previous cycles.
Mini dictionary: MVRV is an indicator that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the average on-chain cost. A rise in the ratio may indicate how inflated the price is relative to the cost basis, while a fall may indicate that the valuation has moved into historically tighter territory.
According to Alex Thorn’s assessment, the current cycle has not produced most of the classic top signs, suggesting that Bitcoin’s top and bottom structure may be playing out differently than previous periods.
Bottom signals not completed yet
It was noted in the report that indicators indicating the formation of a bottom have not yet fully come into play. Only 4 of the 13 bottom indicators have been triggered so far. It was stated that a significant part of the signals that were considered stronger had not yet emerged.
On the timing side, a framework was presented that compared with previous cycles. Historically, bottoms have occurred approximately 12 to 13 months after the market peak. It was stated that the current withdrawal has continued for approximately 8 months. This picture indicates that, according to some analysts, the bottoming process may not be completed yet.
Price ranges and the importance of the realized price
Thorn stated that based on the current cost base of $ 53,600, Galaxy predicts a bottom range between $ 40,000 and $ 46,000 in the basic scenario. In a harsher sales wave scenario, the range between 30,000 and 37,000 dollars may come to the fore. In a more limited withdrawal, it seems possible for the price to hold around $51,000 and $54,000.
On-chain data company CryptoQuant also reported that Bitcoin is in a valuation zone historically associated with major bear market bottoms. While BTC recently traded around $59,000, this level was approximately 9 percent above the realized price of $53,600. CryptoQuant is known as an analytics company that tracks market demand and valuation dynamics with on-chain data.
In past cycles, most bottoms have formed at or slightly below the realized price level, including the FTX-driven sell-off in November 2022. These historical examples suggest that the possible bottom zone could extend below $53,600 again and intersect with Galaxy’s base forecast of $40,000 to $46,000.
Demand data offers a more cautious outlook
Data on the demand side revealed a weaker picture. CryptoQuant reported that speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand combined decreased by 652,000 BTC weekly. This was recorded as the sharpest contraction since January 2022. The company’s one-year demand indicator also turned negative, indicating that there were fewer BTC buyers in the market than a year ago.
