The cryptocurrency market continued to remain under pressure ahead of the inflation data to be announced today in the USA. While it was reported that the cost of living was expected to rise above 4 percent in May, reaching its highest level in the last three years, this situation weakened the risk appetite of investors. In this environment, Bitcoin also fell below $ 61,500 and gave back a significant part of the rise that moved above $ 64,000 in some exchanges over the weekend.
The technical outlook for Bitcoin has weakened
One of the headlines that attracted attention in the market was that Bitcoin fell below the 200-week simple moving average, which has been closely watched for a long time. This level is considered one of the important thresholds in technical analysis in terms of long-term direction. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the time spent around this average in the last 11 years of data is approaching 11 months on average and this may indicate a long-term bear market.
FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that the time spent around the 200-week moving average over the last 11 years has averaged about 11 months, which could indicate a very long bear market.
On the futures front, total volume increased by 1.2 percent in the last 24 hours, reaching 193 billion dollars. On the other hand, open position size decreased by 1.5 percent to 102.27 billion dollars. Liquidations jumped 38 percent to $418 million. More than $300 million of this amount was made up of long positions. The fact that Bitcoin approached the $ 61,000 region again showed that the pressure was increasing, especially in bullish transactions.
On the other hand, open interest in Bitcoin futures increased from 712,000 BTC to 728,000 BTC as the price fell. Analysts evaluate that an increase in the open position as the price declines may indicate that new short positions have been opened and investors are positioned for the possibility of additional decline.
Selling trend came to the fore in derivative markets
This outlook was also supported by negative sustained futures funding rates and a weak trend in the open interest-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume difference. These indicators reveal that sellers are turning to buy orders directly in the market rather than passive pending orders. A similar picture was also observed on Solana, ether and XRP. Open interest in Solana futures increased to 69.58 million tokens, approaching the peak of 71.57 million on June 5; However, funding rates and volume data remained weak here too.
A cautious atmosphere also came to the fore in the options market. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index increased from 45.8 percent on Monday to 51.21 percent. A similar increase was seen on the ETH side. It was reported that the demand for short-term downside hedging options on Deribit was higher than upside call options.
Mini dictionary: Implied volatility refers to the expected volatility reflected in option prices. Deribit is one of the main derivative platforms widely used in the cryptocurrency options and futures market.
The jump in Uniswap V4 data did not reflect reality
On the DeFi side, it appeared that the total locked asset size of Uniswap V4 increased by more than 350 percent in one day and received an inflow of approximately 2 billion dollars. It was seen that the data concentrated on BNB Chain. Although at first glance this movement seemed to indicate a large liquidity migration, it later became clear that the picture was different.
According to CoinDesk, the source of the increase was not real capital inflow. Unlimited production of Humanity Protocol’s H token, which was hacked the day before, led to the accumulation of worthless tokens in a pool on BNB Chain. This inflated the dollar-denominated total value on the dashboards but did not translate into actual deposit growth.
Buy zone debate is on the agenda in the market
Behavioral analysis platform Santiment reported that the general sales wave has reached levels that can historically be considered a buy zone. The company is known as an analytics platform that tracks on-chain and market behavior data. Accordingly, the 30-day MVRV indicator showed that the average investor who purchased in the last month had a loss of 10 percent in Bitcoin, 12 percent in ether, 9 percent in Chainlink, 8 percent in XRP and approximately 18 percent in Cardano. The institution classified Bitcoin, ether, Chainlink and XRP as “reasonable buy” and Cardano as “strong buy”.
Additionally, the on-chain lending protocol rose 12 percent in the last 24 hours following a $175 million investment round. Apollo and VanEck were also among the supporters in this round co-managed by Paradigm, a16z crypto and Ribbit Capital. It was stated that the agreement, designed in the token purchase structure, valued the protocol up to 2 billion dollars. However, the token price later gave back some of this rise.
