While Bitcoin lost more than 16% in value in the last month, the rise in US stock markets continued. During the same period, the S&P 500 was up about 5%. This divergence in the market indicates that the selling pressure may be due not only to crypto-specific developments, but also to investor interest turning to other areas.
The search for momentum came to the fore
According to Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research at Charles Schwab, the main reason for the recent decline is not Michael Saylor-related sales, but the change of direction of speculative capital. Charles Schwab is among the major US-based brokerage and asset management companies. Ferraioli noted that crypto investors often follow price momentum rather than fundamental data.
Ferraioli said that crypto investors have historically moved towards the area where there is momentum, and at this stage, this momentum is moving away from the crypto market.
Ferraioli stated that Bitcoin has been in the bear market since October. According to him, this picture should be taken into account when assessing the current weakness. The price’s failure to produce a sustained recovery despite ETF approvals, billions of dollars of inflows and regulatory progress in Washington is also read in this context.
It is reported that investor interest is especially centered around the theme of artificial intelligence in this cycle. Shares of companies focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure, data center and computing power delivered strong returns. The expected public offerings of companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic have also attracted the attention of growth-oriented investors.
IPO expectations have increased competition
The news stated that SpaceX is also preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of $1.8 trillion, and that the large-scale IPO wave could attract over $200 billion in total. In this environment, Bitcoin is forced to compete simultaneously with other high momentum transactions in the market.
decentralized exchange hyperliquid Transactions on it also show that this trend is reflected on the crypto side. Investors are turning to synthetic contracts tied to private company shares before IPOs, Ferraioli said.
Mini dictionary: A synthetic contract is a derivative structure that allows trading based on the price movement of an asset without directly owning it. Hyperliquid is known as a crypto platform focusing on decentralized derivative transactions.
Ferraioli assessed that investors seeking momentum are now focusing on IPOs, so Bitcoin’s appeal has weakened.
ETF transactions and seasonal weakness weighed on
It was also emphasized that the pressure does not arise only from competition at the macro level. On May 26, it was reported that a $1.26 billion block sale in BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF was conducted off-exchange. NYDIG evaluated this transaction as a large investor seeking a quick exit from its Bitcoin position.
According to Ferraioli, such transactions show that investors approaching the breakeven level prefer to exit rather than remain in the position. It was shared that Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC was not the main reason for the current trend, but rather a useful narrative connected to an already ongoing weakness.
Seasonal effects also make the outlook difficult. Ferraioli pointed out that the summer months have historically been one of the weakest periods for Bitcoin. Although it was stated that regulatory steps such as the Clarity Act could support adoption in the long term, there was no clear catalyst that would reverse the trend in the short term.
