Bitcoin’s recent difficulty in rising along with US stocks has brought different explanations in the market. The discussions included the bitcoin sale of Strategy, directed by Michael Saylor, whether institutional demand has weakened, and why the upward trend in recent months has not been reflected in prices to the extent expected. Charles Schwab analyst Jim Ferraioli, on the other hand, drew a simpler framework and argued that the real problem is loss of momentum.
According to Schwab analyst, the main problem is the shift in interest
Ferraioli said Bitcoin has been in a bear market since October. According to him, although there are many headlines that complicate the market picture, the main factor explaining the price behavior is the turning of investor interest to other areas. Spot ETF approvals have been received in the last year, billions of dollars of institutional money have been inflowed, and expectations for the clarification of the regulatory framework in Washington have gained strength. By contrast, Bitcoin failed to produce the strong and sustained rally that many investors expected.
Ferraioli stated that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since October, and that the main issue recently is that the momentum in the market has moved out of crypto rather than the lack of positive news.
According to the analyst, after a bottom formed in early February, a Wall Street firm’s successful ETF launch revived the institutional adoption narrative, and this process helped Bitcoin recover from the February lows. However, unlike previous cycles, this recovery did not turn into widespread speculative enthusiasm.
As one of the leading brokerage firms and asset management companies in the USA, Charles Schwab is closely watched for its analysis of financial markets. Ferraioli is among the analysts who evaluate the company’s market outlook.
Capital may have shifted to the theme of gold and artificial intelligence
Ferraioli stated that crypto investors have historically turned to the area with the strongest price momentum. In this context, new addresses of the capital have changed in the last year. While some investors have turned to precious metals, gold has received significant inflows from those looking for alternatives to both stocks and crypto. On the other hand, artificial intelligence, which has become the dominant growth story in financial markets, came to the fore.
AI-connected infrastructure, data center and advanced computing companies are generating strong returns, while anticipated IPOs of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have also garnered investor interest. According to Ferraioli, momentum-oriented investors are now paying more attention to these opportunities. This indicates that Bitcoin is now competing not only with other crypto assets, but with all major growth and speculation narratives in the market.
Mini dictionary: Perpetual contract is a type of derivative contract that does not have a specific maturity date. hyperliquid As a platform focusing on decentralized derivative transactions, it also offers contracts based on some non-crypto assets to its users.
The fact that platforms such as Hyperliquid, mentioned in the news, started to offer perpetual futures contracts linked to private company stocks, commodities and non-crypto assets were among the factors that accelerated this transition. Thus, crypto-specific trading infrastructure began to offer investors not only digital assets but a broader speculative space.
Strategy sale was discussed but not seen as the deciding factor
Ferraioli thinks the impact on the market of Strategy selling 32 bitcoins has been exaggerated. This transaction attracted attention from investors, as Michael Saylor has long been considered one of the strongest supporters of Bitcoin. Still, the sell-off served as a convenient narrative addition to a broader trend that had already begun, the analyst said.
Ferraioli stated that there is a strong narrative in the market that Strategy will not sell at all, but the 32 bitcoin transaction should not be seen as the main reason for the current price weakness.
The analyst also stated that some ETF investors were only able to compensate for their losses after last year’s sharp fluctuations, so they considered the current price levels as an exit opportunity instead of increasing positions. It was stated that this behavior created a different appearance from the enthusiastic market phases seen in previous cycles.
Institutional adoption is ongoing, but may not be enough in the short term
While corporate adoption is real, it’s not on as large a scale as the market thinks, according to Ferraioli. Bitcoin ETFs have expanded access, but the bulk of the asset class is still driven by retail investors and momentum-driven participants. This distinction is important; because individual investors tend to act according to current trends rather than long-term valuation models.
In this context, it was evaluated that regulatory initiatives such as the Clarity Act, which is expected to bring clearer rules for digital assets in the USA, may support adoption in the long term, but may not be enough to reverse the current trend alone in the short term. Ferraioli also noted that the demand for protection against downside risks was still effective for a while, and that this pressure had eased somewhat in recent weeks.
Seasonal factors were also cited as among the reasons for the slowdown. Summer months are historically considered one of the weaker periods for Bitcoin; As transaction volumes decline, investor interest may shift to other areas. Regulatory clarity is advancing, financial companies are developing new crypto products, and institutional interest continues, according to the analyst’s summary. However, if the investor’s attention is directed to other stories, these developments may not raise prices on their own.
