Recently published analyzes and on-chain data in the cryptocurrency market indicate that it may take months for Bitcoin to reach a new low. Drawing attention to the existence of a recurring pattern in price movements, experts state that Bitcoin has spent three years with an increase and one year with a loss of value throughout its history.
Market cycles and forecast to 2026
When market analyst CryptoTice examines Bitcoin’s past cycles, he emphasizes that each cycle follows a similar chronology. The expert states that in each cycle, buying movements stand out for three years, followed by a significant decline phase that lasts one year.
CryptoTice reminds that Bitcoin rose for three years in each market cycle and fell sharply for one year, and that this structure has never been disrupted until now, and says that investors waiting for a new low should not rush.
According to this model, it is evaluated that the next big bottom for Bitcoin may occur towards the end of 2026. CryptoTice points out that those who declared bottom levels early in the past made a serious mistake in 2018 and 2022; For example, many suggested that a “bottom” had been reached before the price dropped to $3,200. Similar claims were made in 2022 before falling below the $ 15,500 level.
The analyst thinks that factors such as fund flows, spot ETF approvals or general market mood do not directly affect Bitcoin price cycles, and that the main determinant is this repetitive structure over time. Finally, he states that investors who protect their capital and prefer to wait may have the opportunity to evaluate the possible bottom at the end of 2026.
Reserve increase and seller pressure on Binance exchange
Rei Researcher, who conducts chain data-oriented analyzes in the cryptocurrency field, pointed out that there was a rapid increase in Bitcoin reserves on the Binance platform at the end of May. A total reserve of 647,800 BTC was reached on the exchange in just a few days.
While this rise was taking place, Bitcoin price was traded in the $ 73,500 band. At the same time, a slight weakening trend was observed in the market. Large-volume wallets transferring significant amounts of crypto to the exchange is associated with the expectation of selling pressure in the short term by most commentators.
It is generally interpreted that the increase in stock market reserves means that large investors are preparing to sell their cryptocurrencies. The price weakening and increased supply observed simultaneously with the increase in reserves in Binance indicate that new declines may occur if persistence above the $ 73,000 level is not achieved.
This picture, combined with long-term cycle analysis, leads to the conclusion that the market should be approached with a more cautious perspective at its current point.
Mini dictionary: Binance is a digital asset trading platform founded in 2017 and is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume. Here, users can buy and sell various cryptocurrencies and access on-chain data.
Despite the short-term selling pressure, long-term weakness may strengthen the possibility of a big bottom expected at the end of 2026 for Bitcoin.
