The stagnation that has been going on for about four months in the crypto market may soon be replaced by a strong price movement. Drawing attention to this possibility, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn predicted that Bitcoin would emerge suddenly and in volume from its movement stuck in the current narrow band. According to the analyst, the magnitude of the near-term volatility move could be between 10 percent and 20 percent.
Historical decline in volatility
Bitcoin price has been trading in a very narrow range for 114 days since February 2026. During this period, the volatility indicator also dropped to 0.90, making a new multi-month low. The fact that the cryptocurrency market, which is normally more active, has remained so quiet has been interpreted as a remarkable situation by industry experts for a while.
As the analyst emphasizes, historically such harsh volatility squeezes often lead to sudden and directional price explosions.
Maartunn stated that it should not surprise anyone if Bitcoin experienced a value change between 10 and 20 in the short term.
Contraction in liquid supply
One of the main factors that attracted attention during this period was the decline in transaction volumes, especially in large cryptocurrency exchanges. In addition, long-term investors withdraw their Bitcoins from exchanges and keep them in their own wallets, significantly reducing the liquid supply in the market.
Mini dictionary: Non-custodial wallet is a type of cryptocurrency wallet in which users’ private keys are completely under their control and cannot be accessed by a brokerage firm or platform. In this way, assets remain in full ownership of the user.
Limiting the supply of Bitcoin that can be sold on exchanges means there is much less liquidity available for new purchases or sales to impact the price. In such an environment, prices can fluctuate much more quickly with a significant external influence — such as the Federal Reserve’s economic report or a corporate investment announcement, the analyst noted.
Price scenarios are becoming clear
Maartunn states that two different scenarios stand out. If the Bitcoin price persists above $78,200, the stop levels of investors who open short positions will work and the price band can quickly move between $81,500 and $88,000. Conversely, if the sell-off falls below $72,000, the decline to $65,000 or even $58,800 could be accelerated by forced liquidations of highly leveraged investors.
| Scenario | Critical Level | Target Range |
|---|---|---|
| up break | Above $78,200 | $81,500 – $88,000 |
| down break | Under $72,000 | $65,000 – $58,800 |
This sudden and strong price explosion detected in Bitcoin is shown as the main factor that will determine the direction of price movements throughout the summer. According to the analyst, the narrow band movement that has been going on for four months may now be nearing its end and the market is expected to witness a major breakout.
