Bitcoin rebounded from a critical on-chain support zone over the weekend, leading investors to refocus on the $78,200 level. According to the latest data, it is said that BTC may enter a new upward adventure towards $ 100,000 in the coming months.
Short-term investors’ line of defense
Bitcoin, which reached $74,000 with an increase of approximately 2.5% over the weekend, attracted attention with the recovery it started from around $72,500. This zone is very close to the cost base of Bitcoins held for three to six months and is considered an indicator of medium-term investor interest.
According to data from crypto analysis company Glassnode, the average cost of this group of investors hovers around $71,400. Analyst Marcus Corvinus stated that this level is the strongest support for Bitcoin in the near term. According to the analyst, the most notable target in the short term is $ 78,200; It was stated that this is consistent with the realized price of BTCs held for a three to six month period. This level, which was lost in the sales wave in October 2025, is expected to be tested again.
“This group of investors maintains their profit position, so they have a strong motivation to defend the level,” Corvinus commented.
Mini dictionary: Realized price is the average cost price of an asset calculated based on the last time it moved on the chain, not the moment it was sold in the market. It is especially used in on-chain analysis to show which investor group is in profit or loss.
Technical indicators and bullish scenarios
Historically, Bitcoin closes above its three- to six-month investor cost base have generally heralded long-term upside. In similar movements since 2017, the price increased by an average of 2.3% in the first 30 days, 21.9% in 90 days and 36.6% in 180 days.
Based on current price levels, the relevant projections point to targets of $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months. While the short-term rate is kept low, it is noteworthy that the success rate in three- and six-month maturities increases to 66.7% and 79.2%, respectively.
| Period | Average Target Price | Success Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $75,700 | 54.2 |
| 3 months | $90,200 | 66.7 |
| 6 months | $101,100 | 79.2 |
Bear flag and risk factors
However, Bitcoin’s technical outlook still does not indicate a clear uptrend. The recent rally occurred near the bottom line of the bear flag formation, which emerged after the price retreated from the $98,000 peak in 2026. The upper limit of this pattern falls at around $90,000 and also coincides with important Fibonacci retracement levels.
If the bulls can maintain the current support, the $90,000 region emerges as the key target in the coming months. However, if there are daily closings below this line, there may be a risk that the price will decline to the $ 50,000-60,000 range. In such a scenario, the recent bounce may be part of a broader downtrend in the market rather than a permanent uptrend.
