In a bid to maintain America’s status as the “Crypto Capital of the World,” US President Donald Trump has publicly expressed his support for the multi-billion-dollar prediction industry widely known through Kalshi and Polymarket.
In a May 26 statement he published on Truth Social, Trump championed the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig for regulatory leadership in the predictive sector, saying that is where it will thrive.
He further criticized the political figures Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Waltz, and JB Pritzker for their collective coordination of the crackdown on prediction markets.
The crypto “rules of the road.”
In Minnesota, Tim Walz signed a law explicitly banning event markets, which was scheduled to take effect on August 1. Hours later, the CFTC and the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit to counter this, alleging encroachment on federal jurisdiction.
In New York, Attorney General Letitia James filed a pair of lawsuits against predictive platforms, alleging violations of the state’s gambling and consumer protection laws. In response, the CFTC filed a counter-suit to assert its authority in financial swaps.
In Illinois, Governor J.B. Pritzker issued cease-and-desist orders against these markets, alleging market manipulation. As is the trend, the CTTC filed a federal lawsuit to void these restrictions. The watchdog also filed several other suits that block the attorneys general of Arizona, Connecticut, and Wisconsin from shutting down prediction platforms.
So far, at least 15 more states have introduced bills attempting to regulate or outright ban these platforms. Other than insider trading, these states also claim underage use.
Conflict of interest
Ethics watchdogs have raised concerns about Donald Trump Jr. being an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Compounding the issue, the Trump family has announced plans to launch its own prediction market, tentatively named “Truth Predict.”
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