While the Bitcoin market in 2026 faces ongoing selling pressure due to global political uncertainties, the cryptocurrency is struggling to find a significant balance near the $77,000 level. However, according to some analysts, the $73,000-$75,000 range could form a strong support zone. Crypto researcher Okada_DeFi0x states that various on-chain data and institutional demand strengthen this expectation.
Long-Term Investors and ETF Demand Support the Market
In recent weeks, the accumulation trend of long-term Bitcoin investors has accelerated significantly. Investors in this group reduce the BTC supply on the exchanges by meeting the selling pressure in the market. Historically, this behavior paved the way for price stabilization and subsequent periods of recovery.
The demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs stands out as one of the strongest support factors in the market. While daily net inflows were in the hundreds of millions of dollars, tens of billions of dollars of Bitcoin were added to ETF portfolios throughout the year. This stable demand covers a significant portion of the new BTC supply entering the market, especially after the halving.
Okada_DeFi0x points out that strong inflows into ETFs have absorbed most of the BTC supply, especially after the halving, and this demand has solidified the price base.
The decrease in Bitcoin reserves in the exchanges also alleviates the selling pressure in the near term. The relative price strength index (RSI), according to on-chain indicators, has dropped to more neutral levels, abandoning overheated market conditions. All these factors point to a more solid ground under current prices.
Institutional Interest and Macro Factors Increase Recovery Expectations
Throughout 2026, cash management departments of companies, family offices and asset managers continue the trend of increasing their Bitcoin holdings. The expansion in banks’ custody services also moves in parallel with customer demand.
This institutional interest brings structural demand to the market that was missing in previous market cycles. Possible advancements in legislation, particularly the adoption of regulations such as the Clarity Act and further integration of crypto by the banking industry, could make it easier for pension funds to also include Bitcoin in their portfolio.
A more positive regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies reduces barriers for large-scale investors and makes it easier for them to enter the market.
On the macro side, the increased market liquidity due to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the dollar’s depreciation may support risky asset prices. Historically, similar conditions had fueled Bitcoin’s price growth in previous recovery phases. However, how these factors will affect market development in the rest of the year stands out as the most important uncertainty.
If economic conditions continue to deteriorate, analyst Okada_DeFi0x thinks the real bottom point in this cycle could extend into the third or fourth quarter of 2026. However, he remains of the view that accumulating Bitcoin around $73,000-$75,000 could have an attractive risk/return profile in the long term. Bitcoin’s previous record level of $126,000 also stands out as a reference point that prices can reach again.
Mini dictionary: ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) are investment instruments that track the price of a basket of assets or a single asset and can be easily bought and sold on stock exchanges. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, are directly indexed to the Bitcoin price, allowing investors to participate in the price movement without purchasing Bitcoin.
| Factor | Latest Status |
|---|---|
| Introduction to Spot Bitcoin ETFs | Hundreds of millions of dollars per day, tens of billions of dollars in total |
| BTC reserve on the exchange | in decline |
| Technical outlook (RSI) | Reduced to neutral levels |
| Institutional interest | In an upward trend in 2026 |
| Macroeconomic expectation | Interest rate cuts and a weak dollar are a possibility |
