Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges and spot ETFs has risen due to increased inflows. It is calculated that stock market inflows and ETF outflows in recent days have created a local selling pressure of approximately 34,000 BTC in total. Despite the revival of investor interest, experts point out the need for new spot demand for the price to achieve a stronger upward momentum.
BTC Movements Towards Exchanges and ETFs
According to Axel Adler Jr., who is known in the cryptocurrency market; Last week, there was a net inflow of 18,000 BTC to the exchanges. This figure shows that investors are pulling more BTC into liquid positions and the tendency to sell is increasing. There was a net outflow of approximately 16,000 BTC into spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period. Adler stated that especially institutional funds could not fully absorb this supply, supporting the current trend away from risk.
“It is difficult to expect a strong upward momentum without stock market movements turning neutral or negative,” Adler said.
It is reported that the total sales pressure of 34,000 BTC created by these two indicators has a significant impact on the price.
What Do Spot and Futures Data Say?
Glassnode’s cryptovizart emphasized that the daily transaction volume in ETFs has recently fallen below 20 billion dollars, and this figure will exceed 50 billion dollars by the end of 2025. This decrease in volume in the spot market shows that short-term speculative demand has decreased and the price is not sufficiently supported during increases.
On the other hand, although Bitcoin fell below the $ 75,000 support in a short time, it quickly recovered and tested $ 77,800. It is stated that in this rapid rise, the allegations of a possible peace agreement between the USA and Iran reduced the risk perception in the markets.
Another prominent demand indicator on the futures side was the movements in open positions. Total open Bitcoin position decreased from 268,000 BTC to 250,000 BTC, before recovering slightly and reaching 254,000 BTC. This decline shows that the “short covering” effect, in which investors with short positions close their transactions, comes to the fore.
Mini dictionary: Short covering is when the price starts to rise in the market, investors who have opened a downward (short) position quickly close their positions and buy back to avoid further losses; This accelerates price movements upwards.
| Period | Net BTC Inflow to Exchanges | Net BTC Outflow from ETFs | Total Selling Pressure (BTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| last week | +18,000 | +16,000 | 34,000 |
Market Statistics and Investor Interest
Funding rates in the futures market also decreased from 0.008% to 0.0026% during the recent rise, indicating that overbought positions have decreased, although they remained in the positive zone. According to Rei Researcher, the daily funding rate has been negative since February 2026; This means that short positions are still dominant and they are paying off long positions.
Glassnode data showed that selling pressure started to ease. Price momentum reportedly weakened by 21.7%, volume collected in the spot market (CVD) increased by 77.2%, and futures CVD increased by 35.5%. That is, while the sales volume decreased, the market began to take a more balanced position.
Conditions of the Ascension Scenario
Analysts state that for a new peak of $80,000, both open positions and spot market demand must strengthen in parallel with the price. Current indicators indicate that short-term selling pressure is on the decline; However, it reveals that new entries and increased demand are essential for a strong and sustainable rise.
