While there were signs of recovery in the market as Bitcoin approached $80,000, a remarkable warning came from economist Henrik Zeberg. Zeberg stated that the current upward movement in Bitcoin is not permanent and the downward trend continues. According to him, this rise should be considered as a short-term “B wave” jump within the main downtrend cycle.
Who is Henrik Zeberg?
Henrik Zeberg stands out as an economist known for his cyclical market analyzes and especially his macroeconomic evaluations. Zeberg, who effectively uses the Elliott Wave theory in financial markets, is followed by long-term cycle predictions for different asset classes.
Elliott Wave analysis in Bitcoin: Correction wave risk
According to Zeberg’s post on his social media account on May 25, the rise in Bitcoin price is considered a “B wave” movement. Wave B, according to Elliott Wave theory, means a temporary recovery after a general downward trend (wave A); Then the C wave begins, which brings the real and more severe decline.
“The rise in Bitcoin will most likely be temporary. The market may become overly optimistic; the real decline has not yet come. After the reaction rise, there may be an opportunity for a position change,” Zeberg said, calling investors to be cautious.
Pointing out in his analysis that Bitcoin may have peaked above $110,000 in the past period, Zeberg emphasized that the current rise may be an indication that the long-term fifth wave has been completed. Zeberg, who has been monitoring Bitcoin’s price movements on his own chart since 2012, stated that a main peak formation may have been established in the market.
Stating that Bitcoin’s recent decline to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $66,426 technically provided the basis for a new reaction rise, Zeberg argued that although he mentioned the possibility of exceeding the current levels slightly in the short term, the general picture still points downwards. The $41,492 level stands out as the target in a possible decline.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave theory is a technical analysis approach that argues that market prices move within a certain cycle and wave structure. According to this theory, five main upward (motif) and three main downward (correctional) waves are observed in prices.
Fall signals are getting stronger in technical indicators
In his analysis, Zeberg also pointed out a risky picture in momentum indicators. The negative divergence, especially noticeable on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicates that momentum is weakening as the price makes new highs. Such divergences have preceded significant trend reversals in Bitcoin in the past.
In addition, the MACD indicator, which is followed on a monthly basis, is approaching the “bear intersection”, reminding us of similar signals seen in previous bear markets. Similar MACD intersections were detected before the decline periods in 2018 and 2022.
TradingShot, another market analyst, also pointed out the negative discordance in the monthly RSI indicator in Bitcoin and emphasized that sufficient momentum was not provided despite the rise. Such technical indicators may signal that the price has reached a new major top.
Cyclical indicators: A decline towards $50,000 is possible
In cycle analysis, which offers a different perspective, Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, halving effect and Fibonacci time levels are brought together to predict lower prices for the coming period. In these analyses, it is stated that the price of Bitcoin may decrease especially to around $ 50,000. The 350 moving average level followed on the weekly chart also served as the bottom of previous declines.
| Indicator | The current situation | Previous Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (Monthly) | There is negative discordance | In previous hill areas |
| MACD (Monthly) | Near bear intersection | Before the 2018 and 2022 bear markets |
| Fibonacci Level | $66,426 support | Similar to past technical corrections |
Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high of over $110,000 at the time of writing.
