Bitcoin had a rough start to the weekend. BTC, which lost 1.22 percent in value on Saturday, experienced a significant decrease of 8.88 percent on Sunday. At the opening of the first day of the week, Bitcoin’s price fell into the TBO cloud on the daily chart.
Supports were broken, bearish signals strengthened
On Wednesday last week, the price fell below the $79,000 level, indicating that an important support was lost in the upward movement that has been continuing since the end of March. Following this level, another support line could not be crossed on Friday and the price closed below this level.
Daily RSI dropped to 33.45 level. The pivot support, which was last tested in April, was at 31.45 in the RSI. Two separate negative divergences (bearish divergence) occurred in the TBO indicator on Friday and at the end of the week. The on-balance volume (OBV) indicator has also fallen below its moving average. These developments were interpreted by market analysts as a “pre-decline squeeze”.
The analyst, known by the pseudonym MooninPapa, said, “Once Bitcoin enters the cloud, a horizontal movement is generally expected followed by a new retreat. The lower band of the cloud, $75,644, is currently being watched as the most critical level.” He commented as follows:
When all these technical signs come together, both the TBO cloud, broken support levels and consecutive bearish signals indicate that an upward reaction in Bitcoin is becoming difficult in the short term.
Stablecoin dominance crossed the line for the first time since 2021
Another indicator that attracted as much attention as the Bitcoin chart at the weekend was the stablecoin dominance rate. This rate broke above the key red turning line on Friday and continued to rise throughout the weekend. It was emphasized in the chart that this rise, which reached the upper band of the TBO cloud, was experienced for the first time since the 2021 peak period.
At the close of the week, the stablecoin-dominated RSI indicator also revealed the conditions tested in the past before major peaks and sharp declines. Analysts point out that if this rate closes above the TBO cloud, the target could be 13 percent.
If stablecoin dominance and Bitcoin dominance increase at the same time, it means that the market is shifting to BTC in general. However, if the Bitcoin share decreases while the stablecoin rate increases, it indicates that a more cautious character stands out in the market.
Pressure continues on Ethereum and ETHBTC parity
On the Ethereum side, the outlook also remained weak. The price, which went above the cloud for a short time on April 17, came under selling pressure again on the next trading day. The current technical pattern is considered a “bear flag” formation for Ethereum. According to the structure, it is predicted that if the formation works fully, the price can be pulled up to $ 1,000.
ETH dominance fell from its peak in April and became weak again. In the same analysis, it is stated that there was a TBO break in the ETHBTC parity and the weekly RSI recorded a new low. A steady downward trend has prevailed in this parity in the last five years.
On Friday, CME futures closed with a gap in Bitcoin at $78,675 and Ethereum at $2,205. CME gaps have historically closed frequently; however, the timing of this process remains unclear.
On the other hand, a second negative divergence signal was detected in the total cryptocurrency market. If the total market value of cryptocurrency falls below the cloud, the $2.18 trillion level stands out as important support.
Negative picture stands out in macro indicators
While the 99,516 target zone in the dollar index DXY was monitored for upward movements, the 160 limit in the USDJPY parity created anxiety again. The VIX index, on the other hand, remains in the cloud at low fear levels. It is stated that the current situation of macro indicators does not support a strong recovery for Bitcoin for now.
Although the possibility of a reaction in Bitcoin in the short term technically opens, the movement inside the TBO cloud, broken support zones and successive negative indicators indicate that consolidation in the market may continue for a while.
