Recent developments in the cryptocurrency market show that positive onchain indicators have emerged for Bitcoin, but new record highs may not come easily in the short term. In the analyst note published by Bitfinex, it was emphasized that Bitcoin has given its most positive signals in on-chain data since the end of January, but some fundamental risks in the market still remain serious.
Long-Term Investors and Market Behavior
According to Bitfinex analysis, the balance of investors who have been holding Bitcoin for a long time in the crypto market has increased by 300 percent since the beginning of the year, reaching approximately 4 million Bitcoins. This group of investors appears to be taking profits of $180 million each day following the brief rally that saw Bitcoin rise above $82,000 in mid-May. However, these profit takings, compared to previous cycles, show that investors are still largely in control of the market. In comparison, daily losses averaged 479 million dollars. In quiet periods when this figure remains flat, the average loss is around 200 million dollars.
Bitfinex analysts evaluated, “Unless the losses realized decrease to the level of 200 million dollars, it cannot be said that the on-chain recovery is fully realized.”
It is stated that there is still a significant pressure in the markets, and especially large investors have been reluctant to buy recently. CryptoAppsy According to data, Bitcoin fell below $ 79,000 within the week after testing the $ 82,000 level in mid-May.
Gamma Pressure in the Options Market
It was reported that the derivatives market is effective in Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. According to data from blockchain data company Glassnode, approximately $2 billion in short gamma options positions are currently accumulated around the $82,000 strike price. Bitfinex states that as the price approaches this level, transactions by market makers to protect their positions may increase volatility, which may push Bitcoin towards the $82,000 region for a while.
“Market makers’ actions to maintain these levels can quickly move the price there, but once the squeeze runs out, the same positions can weaken momentum and create resistance. So, although the current gamma movement is pushing the price up, this does not mean sustainability,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam.
Fernandes also points out that price movements and institutional entries differ from each other. US Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced the largest single-day outflow since January, with an outflow of $635 million on May 13.
Economic Environment and Institutional Demand
Institutional buyers are less active in the market, making it difficult for prices to stabilize. The purchasing volume of large investors decreased by 80% compared to April. According to analysis, this situation causes upward attempts to quickly encounter sales and prices to fail to find a clear direction.
On the macroeconomic side, it is noteworthy that Kevin Warsh, who has just been appointed as the head of the US Federal Reserve, sees the possibility of an interest rate cut as quite low in the high inflation environment of 3.8%. Fernandes pointed out that benchmark interest rates are expected to remain high for a long time and that it seems very difficult for Bitcoin to reach a new peak within the year unless there is a radical external development.
Mati Greenspan argued that the current $79,000 to $85,000 range stands out as a short-term transition zone, not permanent resistance.
With Bitfinex analysts, Fernandes stated that the $85,000 level will be a “fair value war” until the losses in the market decrease and that institutional buyers must be active again in order to overcome this region permanently.
