Bitcoin’s recent price action above $79,000 has yet to offer confirmation of a permanent bottom, according to market expert Peter Brandt. The experienced analyst argued that Bitcoin is technically still in a correction channel and a definitive trend reversal cannot be talked about.
While evaluating Bitcoin’s daily chart, Brandt stated that the formation of a bear channel in the market has continued since the February bottoms. According to him, the last upward move should only be considered a reaction rise within the channel until the price breaks out of the channel definitively.
Critical Resistances and Possible Scenarios
Bitcoin recently tested resistance at the upper band of the channel, reaching $79,660 levels on the upside. This region is seen as one of the points where sellers have stepped in in the past, especially with the rally that started from the bottom in April. Brandt cited $79,145 as the main level to watch for Bitcoin. Accordingly, a decline in the price below this level at the ATR-based daily close may cause the upward momentum to weaken and highlight the possibility of a possible reversal from the channel resistance.
If there is a close below the $79.145 level, the midpoint of the channel will serve as a new support position to watch. If this level cannot be maintained, the potential for the price to fall towards the lower band of the channel increases. Therefore, continued short-term corrections in the market may come to the fore.
On-chain Indicators and Market Dynamics
Apart from technical analysis, on-chain data also points to notable developments in the Bitcoin market. Unrealized profitability rates of short-term investors increased to 17.7 percent as of May 5, reaching its highest level since June 2025. With the recent rise, investors are more likely to take profits; because this rate was previously seen at levels close to the 200-day moving average in March 2022, and then a decline in prices was observed.
On the other hand, daily profits on May 4 reached 14,600 BTC, the highest level since December 10, 2025. This situation revealed that many investors took the recent rise as an opportunity and sold.
US Data, Spot Demand and Market Reactions
Activity in the spot market is also noteworthy. As of the end of April, the Bitcoin price premium on Coinbase has turned negative, meaning that demand in the US spot market is lower than global averages. Although the 91,000 BTC spot demand contraction seen in April recovered to 11,000 BTC in May, it has not yet moved into positive territory. It is stated that the recent increase in demand comes mostly from the futures market.
On the macroeconomic side, it is reported that inflation figures from the USA put pressure on the market. The producer price index (PPI) increased to 6 percent on an annual basis, while the core PPI reached 5.2 percent. In light of this data, it is evaluated that the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) making an interest rate cut in the near term has decreased in the cryptocurrency market and the general liquidity conditions in Bitcoin remain tight.
Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 index in the last three months. While BTC increased by approximately 20 percent during the said period, the S&P 500 increased by 8 percent; In the same period, gold decreased by 6 percent. Thus, it was observed that Bitcoin maintained its strong course despite the difficulties faced by risky assets.
Peter Brandt said, “Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear bottom and the price is not considered to have confirmed the recovery trend without a clear break. The critical thing is to exceed the upper band of the channel and close above it on a daily basis. Otherwise, the price may move downwards again in the coming days.” made his assessment.
