Trump has reached China and talks will begin at 17:00, an eventful day for cryptocurrencies. Although BTC remains above $80 thousand, gains in altcoins are limited. The fact that inflation continues to rise is the biggest obstacle to the Fed lowering interest rates. So what are the current expectations of QCP analysts?
Cryptocurrency review
BTC It is consolidating near its 200-day SMA near $82,000. Analysts welcome BTC’s ability to absorb this despite ETF outflows and high inflation. The downward momentum has diminished for now, according to analysts. However, the key resistance to overcome is at $84k and Trump-Xi headlines or progress on CLARITY could support this.
CPI Analysts who discussed the data said;
“April CPI data released yesterday briefly pushed 10-year bond yields towards 4.46%, with core CPI coming in slightly higher at 2.8% annually versus 2.7% expected. The surface reading showed a hawkish tone, but the details were less clear. Housing, particularly homeowners’ equivalent rent, drove much of the rise, and this is after the BLS closes in October 2025, rather than a new wave of inflation.” “It appears to reflect delayed adjustments. Core goods inflation, excluding housing, remained low at only 1.14% on an annual basis, supporting that the cost increases from customs duties have not yet turned into a full-fledged goods inflation shock.”
But the real problem is different. As pointed out by Goolsbee from the Fed yesterday, the increase in inflation is not only fueled by the cost of energy.
“The more persistent problem remains super core inflation. Core services inflation, excluding housing, accelerated for the third month in a row, focusing the market’s attention on demand and wage-sensitive inflation. At the same time, the Chinese PPI turned positive for the first time in 41 months, indicating that the headwind of global goods deflation is weakening. AI-driven productivity gains and low unit labor costs continue to argue against a full-blown inflation spiral, but the hurdle to be overcome for the Fed to cut interest rates is clearly rising.”
Cryptocurrency predictions
QCP Capital Analysts attach great importance to the upcoming talks between Trump and Xi. Here, customs duties, trade, rare earth element supply chains and the Middle East agenda will be the focus of both leaders. Since it is a visit that has been postponed for a long time and that the delegations have been working on intensively, it is likely that Trump will return with plenty of agreements. This can help normalize.
A Senate hearing will be held on the CLARITY Act, and progress could pave the way for the crypto clarity bill to be signed by Trump later this year, boosting cryptocurrencies. But according to QCP analysts BTC If it cannot find the catalyst it is looking for, it may get stuck below 84 thousand dollars and weaken volatility and move in a narrow range for a long time. Current FedWatch Since the expectation is not in favor of cryptocurrencies, the news flow must now be supportive. Markets are now moving towards considering an interest rate increase next year as a certainty.
