As Bitcoin continues to ride the waves of volatile markets, experts are making predictions about its future in the coming months. One of the most significant factors influencing Bitcoin’s price surge is the global M2 money supply—the total amount of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Historically, when the M2 has increased, Bitcoin has responded with strong bullish movements. In fact, during the last major M2 pump, Bitcoin surged by 60%.
If a similar trend holds, Bitcoin could experience another dramatic rise. Some analysts predict that if just 0.5% of the new global M2 assets flow into Bitcoin, the price could reach around $115,000, marking a 37.58% increase. While this may seem fine compared to the lofty $1 million predictions some are hoping for, it reflects a more realistic expectation based on historical trends.
The Nation-State Game Theory: A Wild Card for Bitcoin
Another variable that could dramatically shift Bitcoin’s price is the potential involvement of nation-states. If a government begins printing fiat currency to buy Bitcoin, it could create immense upward pressure on the market. This strategy, often referred to as the nation-state game theory, suggests that the first country to adopt such an approach could dominate the crypto space, driving Bitcoin’s price even higher.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Considering all factors, the most likely scenario for Bitcoin in the next three months is a price range between $99,000 and $115,000, with the potential for even higher gains if market conditions shift favorably. However, there’s also an 80% chance that Bitcoin will maintain this bullish trajectory, with a 20% chance of facing setbacks.
