The strong rise in Bitcoin in recent days has turned the attention of analysts to critical technical indicators. In the last 36 days, BTC price started from $ 60,000 and rose to $ 82,800. This move pushed Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) from 39 in March to 70, reaching its highest level in the last nearly 15 weeks.
Critical technical indicators and analysts’ comments
RSI stands out as one of the important indicators in technical analysis that measures the strength of the trend. Analysts stated that the rise in the RSI usually precedes price corrections, and that this indicator exceeding the 70 limit in Bitcoin is considered an important signal. In particular, it is stated that there has been a short-term retreat in all four similar signals in the last year. While analyst Crypto Tice emphasizes that this is a rare signal, Rekt Fencer also points to previous examples and reminds that this rise was followed by corrections between 35% and 38% twice.
Analyst Jelle emphasized the importance of these levels by saying, “BTC’s daily RSI reached the overbought zone and touched the 200-day moving average.”
Additionally, the market capitalization/gross value ratio (MVRV) has also entered “overheating” territory recently. This ratio shows whether the current value of the asset is expensive compared to its real value. According to CheckOnChain data, this level seen in MVRV was last reached in November 2024, before Bitcoin entered a 15% correction period. Analyst Frank AFetter also stated that short-term investors have tested the extreme level determined in the Bollinger Band for the first time since November 2024.
Support and resistance areas stand out
Bitcoin’s current technical outlook highlights critical support and resistance levels. The 200-day exponential moving average, currently at $83,000, stands out as a strong resistance point, while the $78,000 region has become one of the most important support levels. Analyst Jelle stated that this area is the first main area of interest for Bitcoin.
In addition, the analyst named Tradermayne emphasized that maintaining the support between $78,000–$80,000 in the short term is important for buyers. Similarly, Master of Crypto stated that BTC held in the band between $ 78,500 and $ 79,100 and said that liquidity concentration was experienced especially at this point.
It was noted that settled orders are concentrated on both the buying and selling sides and possible price movements in these regions may disable liquidity accumulation.
Liquidation risk and possible scenarios
If the Bitcoin price falls below $78,000, a significant amount of long positions may be liquidated on the futures side. According to analysts, this possible breakout could trigger leveraged long position liquidation of $3.1 billion.
Investors state that they should be careful against a short-term retreat in prices, especially due to technical indicators entering the overbought zone and the concentration on critical support.
