Bitcoin rose 7 percent last week, rising above the $81,000 level for the first time in more than three months. Despite this remarkable price increase, it is noticeable that investors are still cautious in the derivative markets. Looking at on-chain data, it appears that user activities have not yet recovered. However, the record level of fund inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs traded in the USA indicates that institutional buyers, in particular, have strengthened their interest in the market.
Cautious atmosphere in derivative markets
Futures and options data show professional investors remain cautious despite Bitcoin’s rally. On Tuesday, the annualized premium rate on Bitcoin’s two-month futures contracts remained at 1 percent. Typically, sellers charge a premium of 4 to 8 percent to cover capital costs. This low level indicates that the cautious atmosphere in the market continues.
A similar picture stands out in the options market. The price spread between call and put options remained balanced between -6 and +6, while the delta divergence indicator, which indicates that professional investors are concerned about downside risks, approached the neutral threshold on Tuesday but still remained slightly on the negative side. Although large investors are not very worried about a possible big decline, it is observed that their belief in the rise is losing strength.
It seems that global macroeconomic developments also have an impact on the market sentiment. The fact that Brent oil prices are approaching 110 dollars and the five-year inflation expectation in the USA is 2.5 percent, the highest level of the last decade, partially dampens the risk appetite. However, the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, reached its highest level in its history, giving a positive signal for risky assets.
Weak chart in on-chain indicators
Despite the price movement, transaction volume and user activity on the Bitcoin network reveal that market vitality is relatively low. In the last three months, daily network transfer volume decreased by 54 percent to $4.1 billion. The number of transactions approached the lowest levels of the last five years. Such on-chain data suggests that user interest is waning and wide-scale adoption has yet to accelerate.
In addition, MicroStrategy, under the management of Michael Saylor, paused Bitcoin purchases before its quarterly financial statements, which occasionally led to unfounded concerns among investors. However, the company continued to accumulate aggressively in the last four weeks. Analysts expect MicroStrategy to post a net loss this quarter due to mark-to-market accounting rules.
Record levels in ETF inflows
Another prominent development was the large-scale fund flow to Bitcoin spot ETFs. A total of $1.16 billion net inflow was detected in spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA in the four-day period between Friday and Monday. This shows that institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin has increased significantly and has contributed to the rise in price. CryptoAppsy According to the data, Bitcoin reached the peak of three months by exceeding the level of 81 thousand dollars.
The fact that leveraged buying demand remains weak in the derivatives market suggests that investors in short positions will have to close their positions if the price rises, which may trigger a new upward wave.
While the strong flow of funds to spot ETFs draws attention, the stagnation in on-chain activity and derivative markets reveals a divergent picture between institutional and individual investors.
