WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. crypto legislation known as the Clarity Act has a “50-50 shot” of passing Congress as lawmakers negotiate disputes over ethics rules, crypto rewards, and regulatory oversight ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter.
The bill, aimed at creating clearer rules for digital assets in the United States, is considered one of the crypto industry’s top policy priorities.
“In my opinion, we still have a chance to pass clarity. I would put it at about a 50-50 shot,” Porter said.
Why the Clarity Act Is Being Delayed
In an interview, Porter said the clarity act is currently stalled by disagreements tied to ethics provisions, BRCA-related language, crypto yield products, and concerns among Democrats about vacancies at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
“The big thing that’s holding this up right now are certain concerns around ethics, certain concerns around the BRCA language,” Porter said. “We’re also seeing concerns from Democrats about their seats being filled on the CFTC.”
He said negotiations are largely happening behind closed doors and suggested lawmakers are likely to reach compromises rather than impose outright bans on crypto reward products.
“I don’t think you’re going to get a strict ban on rewards, but I don’t think you’re going to have it be very open,” he said.
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When Will the Crypto Clarity Act Pass?
For the clarity act to pass, the Senate Banking Committee must first hold hearings and approve the bill before a full Senate vote can take place. Any differences between House and Senate versions would then need to be resolved in a conference committee before reaching the president.
“The big concern is really when are we going to see this markup in banking and when are we going to see that floor vote take place,” Porter said.
Midterm Elections Add Political Pressure
Porter warned that the congressional calendar is tightening as midterm election campaigning accelerates.
“We are running out of time,” he said. “The closer we get to the midterms, the less likely it is going to happen.”
He also said political incentives could further complicate negotiations, arguing that some Republicans may benefit if Democrats are blamed for blocking crypto legislation.
“There is an incentive for Republicans not to blow up the market structure process, but almost like hope that Democrats do it and then they can pin it on them,” Porter said.
Despite the political tensions, Porter said lawmakers from both parties remain engaged in negotiations.
“Both sides are working on it. I talk to Republicans and Democrats quite a bit and they’re both working diligently on it, and they both want to get it done,” he said.
What Comes After the Crypto Bill is Passed?
Porter added that crypto policy groups are already preparing for the next stage of digital asset legislation, including tax reforms covering staking rewards, mining income, and small crypto transactions.
“Most of us already know what the very next one is, which is taxation,” Porter said.
The Clarity Act’s prospects now depend on whether Congress can resolve key disputes before election-year politics dominate the legislative agenda.
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