New York -based data scientist Alex McCullough revealed that the estimation platform Polymarket has reached close to 90 %accuracy in certain cases. McCullogh examined the past data of the platform and analyzed the differences between short and long -term markets. In the study, it was emphasized that the platform performed an impressive performance, especially in the predictions against sports and political events. According to the data, the accuracy rate is higher in long -term forecasts.
Which data came to the fore in polymarket estimates?
Data scientist Alex McCullogh conducted a comprehensive analysis by examining past estimates on Polymarket. According to the analysis, in some markets, predictions increase more than 90 %, while others are below 10 %. These extreme ends were excluded from the research to achieve healthier results. McCullogh, especially in short -term markets, said he observed a slight tendency in predictions.
According to McCullogh, the probability distribution in long -term forecasts is wider and the results are often more uncertain. This leads to more careful predictions and consequently higher accuracy rates. In the short term, it was found that market participants gave more sudden reactions, so forecasts vary over time.
The data also showed that the accuracy rates of the estimates increased as time progressed and the events became clear. McCullogh said that the probability forecasts in the market are better adapted to the events that developed over time. This revealed that Polymarket offers predictions based not only on instant intuition, but on data -based predictions.
The performance that attracts attention in sports and politics
In the study, the high estimation accuracy in sports markets also drew attention. NBA, MLB, Champions League and Premier League, such as large organizations such as polymqu background forecasts, over time was quite accurate. These big sports events are the scene of high -volume transactions on the platform and users are instantly pricing developments. Thus, the accuracy of the estimates increases in line with the development of events.
Apart from sports, striking data were obtained in political markets. Polymarket data in the Liberal Party Leadership race in Canada presented predictions beyond traditional surveys. The difference between political competitors could be put forward earlier and earlier on the platform. This showed that the platform has become an alternative measurement tool in political developments.
In the past election processes, similar accuracy levels were identified. In long -term political estimates, for example, in the case of candidates to win, the markets often pointed to the right direction. This has shown that Polymarket can offer healthier predictions, especially in environments with high uncertainty.
Responsibility Rejection: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and thus risk and carry out their operations in line with their own research.
