This week, Bitcoin jumped 4%, rising from $76,351 to $79,447. But CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman says the move was not driven by real buyers. Instead, the push came from the futures market, forcing short sellers out of their positions in a $1.19 billion short squeeze.
Thus, Carmelo Aleman says the rally looks strong but is fragile and could turn bearish soon.
BTC Rally Driven by Derivatives, Not Spot Demand
According to Carmelo Aleman, the recent Bitcoin rally was not backed by strong buying in the spot market.
During the rally, Bitcoin’s open interest across all exchanges surged from about $24.8 billion to nearly $28 billion. This sharp increase shows that traders were heavily adding leveraged positions using borrowed funds.
Instead of fresh capital entering the market, the move came from pressure in the futures market. As prices rose, short sellers were forced to close their positions, triggering a chain reaction that pushed Bitcoin even higher.
Aleman said, “As long as price depends more on derivatives than on solid spot validation, the structure will remain vulnerable to reversal.”
Over $1.1 Billion Liquidations Shock the Market
The charts shared by the analyst highlight a clear spike in short liquidations. On April 22, Bitcoin short liquidations across all exchanges reached over $607 million in a single day.
Ethereum was not far behind. ETH short liquidations on the same day hit $581 million. Together, this pushed total short liquidations to about $1.19 billion, wiping out in one single session.
That forced liquidation created a wave of buying pressure that pushed prices up sharply, but it was not real demand.
On the other hand, long liquidations were much smaller, totaling just over $111 million across both assets.
$9.87 Billion in Options Expiry Added More Pressure
Another factor adding uncertainty is the large number of options expiring today.
According to Deribit data, around $9.87 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are expiring.
Bitcoin’s max pain level is currently near $72,000, while the market price is trading significantly above it. On the options side, Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio stands at 0.93, showing that bearish and bullish positions are almost evenly balanced.
Ethereum, however, shows a slightly stronger bullish tilt. Its put-to-call ratio is lower at 0.72, with ETH trading around $2,315 compared to a max pain level of $2,200.
What Next for BTC Now?
For now, the overall trend still looks positive, with Bitcoin forming higher highs and higher lows through April.
However, a stronger move will likely depend on real spot buyers stepping in. If that demand picks up, Bitcoin could once again attempt to break above the $80,000 level.
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