Russell Thompson, chief investment officer of Hilbert Group, which operates in the field of crypto asset management, stated that liquidity in global markets has begun to deteriorate rapidly. The London-based company manages digital asset funds for both institutional and individual investors. According to Thompson, even a quick resolution of the geopolitical crises in Iran will not be enough for a new rise in risky assets; because markets have become more dependent on central bank policies.
Sharp contraction in liquidity and its impact on Bitcoin
Thompson stated that although stability has been achieved in some areas of the financial sector with the reserve term program implemented recently, a tightening of 20 to 25 percent is on the horizon in the coming period. This rate may put pressure on Bitcoin in the current situation. Over the last six months, Bitcoin’s price has experienced noticeable fluctuation; The euphoric atmosphere at the end of last year has now evolved into a more fragile macro environment.
Bitcoin, which reached a historical peak of over $126,000 in October 2025, entered a downward trend before the end of the year. Entering 2026, prices have fallen to around $63,000, indicating a 50 percent loss from the peak. In this process, sales accelerated in the entire crypto market, outflows were observed in ETFs, and the investment environment moved away from risk-taking.
Thompson said in his report: “Even if the developments in Iran are resolved quickly, I do not expect a permanent upward movement in risky assets unless there is strong support from outside.”
Possible steps in US policy and market expectations
Russell Thompson thinks that decision makers in the USA will not delay in intervening. In particular, he says that a change in the additional leverage ratio, aggressive use of the treasury cash account and a series of interest rate cuts may be on the agenda with the new Fed chairman. Expenditures made in the Treasury General Account, the main account of the US Treasury, clearly add liquidity to the system, while increasing the NPL has the opposite effect.
Search for new balance in the market
After the ongoing volatility in the markets over the last six months, Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,600. CryptoAppsy According to the data, although the current price is still far from the peak, it is observed that the sharp downward declines have given way to a relatively stable period. In this period when investors change strategies and focus on macro data and policy expectations, advances in crypto regulations are expected to provide extra support.
Thompson predicts that important new legal frameworks will be clarified in the USA by the beginning of summer and the Fed’s balance sheet may grow rapidly as inflation pressure decreases. In addition, it is stated that rising oil prices are curbing growth and signs of weakening in the labor market are increasing. These generally provide a deflationary basis to the market.
According to Thompson, although it is natural that the weight in the market is still focused on the possible steps of the Fed, it should not be forgotten that the US Treasury has a high capacity to provide funds to the real economy and financial markets. With his management experience in the Treasury, it will not be a surprise to take more proactive steps in the coming period.
As a result, while a volatile course is expected in Bitcoin in the short term, signals are given for conditions to improve in the medium term. Thompson predicts that the liquidity cycle may form a base by 2027, and the market may witness an upward movement again at the end of the year. It is evaluated that new historical peaks may occur simultaneously with this recovery.
