In recent days, despite geopolitical risks, rising expectations for Bitcoin have come to the fore, and some analysts have argued that levels of $ 88,000 and above may be possible. However, price movements in recent hours showed that the market did not immediately respond to this optimism.
Signals from technical indicators
Bitcoin price has approached a critical resistance line that has been around since October 2025. This declining trend line has been forming from the $126,000 high, connecting lower highs for about six months. Such trend lines, often seen on charts, reflect the general trend of the market and the current balance of power.
In the current case, the price started a downward move after reaching this trend line. In technical analysis, this is often referred to as ‘trend line rejection’ and indicates that the sellers are regaining control at this level. The continuous decline of the peaks over the last six months is considered the clearest indicator that the market is in general decline.
In recent weeks, the price has risen from around $60,000 to over $71,000. Although this movement may seem positive on paper, such increases are interpreted as recovery as long as the general downward trend is not broken. After the trend line was tested overnight, the price pulled back again.
Resistance line and two prominent scenarios
Bitcoin’s rebound from this falling trend line around $71,000 opens the door to two main scenarios in the short term. In the first possibility, selling pressure may increase as the current resistance is renewed and there may be a deeper decline in Bitcoin and a move towards $65,000.
The other scenario is that the price recovers again and exceeds the trend line in question. In this case, there will be a significant change in the technical outlook and the way will be paved for subsequent increases. In such a case, the positive atmosphere highlighted in technical and fundamental analysis will support each other.
The price has not yet managed to close the day above this falling trend line. When the line is crossed only with momentary movements, the market does not interpret this as a permanent break. For a meaningful rise to begin, the upward move must be supported by volume and the price must remain persistently above the trend line.
Finally, although some fundamental data and developments such as ETF inflows are considered positive in the short term, currently prominent technical indicators have become more prominent in determining direction.
Analysts emphasize that while fundamental factors support the story, key levels on the price chart make the final decision. It is stated that in order for Bitcoin to regain upward momentum, it must first clearly exceed the falling trend line.
Currently, the market is in a transition period between technical indicators and the optimistic scenario emerging from fundamental analysis.
