It has been reported that the probability of the Clarity Act, which aims to bring comprehensive regulations for the digital asset market and cryptocurrencies in the USA, to become law within this year is expressed as 30 percent. The person who made this prediction was Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, one of the leading market makers in the cryptocurrency market.
Disagreement with banks prolongs the process
Hammond emphasized that the bill prepared to regulate digital assets in the USA is progressing in the House of Representatives committee, but there are various obstacles in the process.
The Clarity Act aims to clarify the limits of authority and supervision of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. The law includes steps to clarify which crypto assets will be considered securities or commodities and how they will be traded in the market.
A recent survey of the bill’s progress put the bill’s chances of passing at 26 percent. In prediction markets, the rates are around 50 percent. All these data show that uncertainty about the fate of the regulation still continues.
The fact that banks are primarily opposed to offering returns on stablecoins is the biggest point of disagreement in the negotiations of the law. Although the White House and some major crypto companies have put forward alternative solutions in recent weeks, the banks’ stance is not changing direction.
Regarding the bill, Ron Hammond said, “There have been searches for solutions from various parties: Coinbase, the White House and the drafters of the bill tried to find a solution. But every time, the banks do not back down.”
Critical threshold: Balance of market and politics
If passed, the Clarity Act is expected to provide clarity in the regulatory environment in the US for crypto investors and large institutional players. The legal framework, which is currently not fully defined, poses a risk for large funds, banks and pension funds to enter crypto directly. Relaxing these barriers thanks to clear rules will pave the way for new products and integrations in the market.
Hammond states that the traditional side of the financial sector’s reservations about stablecoins offering returns make it difficult to reach a compromise in the legal process. The “interest rate agreement” proposals that came to the agenda in recent weeks were shelved because they did not satisfy both parties. The search for a new solution is currently on the table, but expectations are limited.
Moreover, in the current policy environment, the attitude of politicians has become decisive. It is stated that some MPs, especially those in the Democratic Party who have received support from the crypto industry, have difficulty in positioning themselves regarding the bill. Topics such as decentralized finance and combating money laundering constitute different dimensions of this process.
Hammond pointed out that crypto-related political debates may intensify in the coming months, and investigations into former US President Donald Trump’s crypto activities could affect Democratic support.
Amid all these developments, according to Hammond, ‘passage through a narrow corridor’ for the bill still seems possible. The progress made in the committee and the negotiations between the parties will be decisive for the fate of the law.
Wintermute is one of the world’s largest market making companies with a daily trading volume of approximately $10 million in the crypto market. The company increased its activities in the USA with its New York office and recruited new personnel. It is stated that these moves are related to the fact that regulations in the USA are being perceived more positively.
Hammond underlined the long-term confidence in the US market and emphasized that the company has expanded its operations since the last election.
However, many hurdles still need to be overcome for the Clarity Act to pass. Hammond argued that new initiatives were essential for it to be fully approved by 2026. For now, expectations based on a 30 percent probability reveal that developments in Washington may not lead to a definitive conclusion in the short term.
