While XRP has been trading in a downtrend that has lasted for the past eight months, technical and on-chain indicators have reached values that have historically coincided with significant lows. Remarkable signals emerged especially in the XRP/BTC rate, which measures the performance of XRP against Bitcoin.
RSI and historical data highlight the possibility of a strong rebound
On the daily chart, the relative strength index of the XRP/BTC rate dropped to the 24 level, landing in the most oversold zone since October 2025. These levels have coincided with market bottoms in the past, followed by strong price movements.
It is known that in previous similar periods, XRP recorded increases ranging from 65 percent to 345 percent against Bitcoin. This indicates that current levels may be a historically important turning point.
Chart data also shows that the XRP/BTC pair has been consolidating in a horizontal band for a long time. Such compression periods have stood out as the starting point for strong rises in the past.
The move, which started from a similar bottom zone in June 2025, resulted in a 61 percent increase in the XRP/BTC rate. During the same period, the XRP price rose 92 percent and reached a multi-year peak of $3.66.
Other periods marked on the chart similarly reveal that these levels are reliable in terms of macro bottoms. Therefore, the current price structure is monitored carefully.
MVRV data and support levels play critical roles
The fact that the MVRV Z-score, one of the on-chain indicators, is close to zero shows that investors are at levels close to their costs. This may indicate that the selling pressure has weakened and the market is looking for a bottom.
Similar MVRV levels were seen in 2021, 2022 and 2024, and then periods of strong rise began. An example of this situation is that the rise of XRP, which started from $ 0.30 at the end of 2024, exceeded 500 percent and reached over $ 3.
According to MVRV price bands, the 0.80 level is considered the historical bottom zone, and this band currently corresponds to approximately $1.14. This level also coincides with the 15-month low price seen in February.
Current data suggests that XRP may be relatively undervalued and the recovery process may continue. In this scenario, it is possible that the price will move towards the $ 1.70 level.
On the other hand, in the short-term outlook, the range between $1.25 and $1.30 stands out as the critical support zone. If this range is maintained, the price can be expected to react upwards again.
The fact that approximately 1.73 billion XRP changed hands in this region shows that investors see this level as a significant cost base. This is among the factors that increase the strength of support.
If the price falls below the $1.15 level, it is considered that downside risks may increase. In this case, technically the possibility of a deeper pullback extending up to $0.80 may come to the fore.
