At the time of writing, we were minutes away from the release of key US inflation data. BTC It is above $72K and altcoins have recovered as the ceasefire continues. It is too early to rejoice because the negotiation table will be established as of Saturday and the news coming from here will continue to cause volatility.
Cryptocurrencies April 6-10
next week stagflation We started with the shock priced in, and investors were on edge until Trump announced a ceasefire at 1:30 a.m. Wednesday. The fluctuation in the oil chart has constantly changed the outlook for cryptocurrencies and interest rates. Although inflationary pressure has not completely disappeared, the possibility of the situation getting worse has been significantly reduced thanks to the US-Iran ceasefire.
Brent oil, which started the week above $111, fell 13% in the middle of the week. However, oil climbed to 98 dollars because the passages through the Strait of Hormuz were not opened to full capacity and it would take time for the production capacity of the Gulf countries to return to its previous state. War concerns have not completely disappeared, and weakening US growth data continues to put pressure on risk markets.
QCP Capital In his evaluation today, he wrote:
“On Wednesday, the 2-year interest rate was 3.72% and the 10-year interest rate was 4.25%, but by Friday they had retreated to approximately 3.78% and 4.30%, respectively. The US core PCE, which remained stable at 0.37% monthly, and the still fragile energy environment, kept the Fed in a waiting position, while the growth momentum remained too weak to justify a hawkish pricing again. The result was not a convincing move, but a position of staying in the range.
U.S. futures and cyclical stocks initially rebounded on news of the ceasefire, but the rally weakened as investors realized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was more important than diplomatic framing. Industry leadership remained narrow; “While technology and artificial intelligence performed better, energy-sensitive and transportation-related positions remained tied to crude oil.”
What happens now?
Bitcoinrose from $67,500 on Monday to $72,200 on Friday; The sharpest move was the sudden rally triggered by the ceasefire. Appetite is returning as ETH also reclaimed $2,200. Besides Morgan Stanley The launch of the MSBT ETF gave investors a boost this week. While there was approximately $576.5 million inflow into BTC ETFs this week, the significant recovery from last week is significant.
“On the face of it, institutional positions continue to reflect a cautious bullish bias rather than embracing risk head on. IBIT options showed sustained open interest in the May 45 call option and maintained the 80,000+ contract level throughout the week, while downside hedging continued through put options and long hedges. This combination reflects the market joining the rally but not giving up hedging.” – QCP Capital
A few important factors that we will pay attention to will determine the direction of crypto.
- Will the ceasefire continue?
- How will capital flows into crypto change as belief in the ceasefire increases?
- Will oil prices move to new lows?
- Will we see a strong repricing of interest rate expectations?
Currently, markets do not see a rate cut this year as certain, and this should change.
“The US CPI, the continuation of US-Iran talks and signals from the BoJ will be important as they have a direct impact on energy, inflation and policy credibility, which are the main breaking points of the market. The situation for cryptocurrencies is quite clear. If crude oil prices fall and real yields decrease, BTC can continue its rise with institutional support. If energy risks escalate again, digital assets will return to the role of high beta macro risk.” – QCP Capital
