Bitcoin rose to $70,900 again after falling to $67,000 at the beginning of the week. It is seen that the two-week ceasefire between the USA and Iran was also effective in this recovery, risk appetite increased in the markets and oil prices decreased by around 15 percent, falling below 100 dollars per barrel.
The decline in oil prices and the impact of Fed policies
Following the recent rises in the cryptocurrency market, rapid corrections attracted attention. Although Bitcoin rose above $70,000 several times in recent weeks, the purchases were short-lived and the increases were not permanent. It is expected that the fluctuation in the oil market will largely determine whether the price movement will be sustainable or not.
Analysts working on the Bitfinex exchange predict that if the 15-16 percent decline in oil prices is sustainable, additional interest rate cut expectations for the end of 2026 may be priced in the money markets. Such a move could create a supportive environment for risky non-interest-bearing assets such as Bitcoin.
A permanent decline in oil prices could reduce the effects of the inflationary shock experienced in March, creating room for the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks to cut interest rates within the year. In such a scenario, it is reported that upward movements in Bitcoin may accelerate and the price may approach $ 80,000 as short positions are closed.
Geopolitical developments and market expectations
Adam Saville Brown, head of trading activities at Tesseract Group, states that Bitcoin is currently moving close to a large short position concentration at $ 72,000.
Brown said, “It is seen that around $6 billion in leveraged short positions in the derivative markets are collected between $72,200-73,500. If the demand in the spot market allows this range to be exceeded, it is predicted that the price may move rapidly towards $80,000 with the triggering of liquidations.” He made a statement.
However, according to current data, there is no strong expectation of an interest rate cut in the short term. According to analysts, while the increase in energy costs has kept inflation high, it has not yet significantly reduced demand. This may cause the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at the current level for a long time.
According to media reports, the ceasefire between the USA and Iran is not long-lasting, and the attacks launched by Israel in Lebanon and new tensions have escalated the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. According to the news, it was noted that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz stopped again, and after only a few hours of passage, the flow was cut off again due to clashes.
It is evaluated that these developments may increase oil prices again and a new fluctuation in the energy market may reduce risk appetite. If the parties cannot reach an agreement, there is a possibility that oil may exceed the 100 dollar limit again.
Bitfinex analysts stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains completely closed, oil could reach $120, which would reduce the possibility of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
Markets, which have entered a vigilance period of approximately two weeks, have focused on pricing oil and geopolitical risks. According to analysts’ evaluations, if the ceasefire is not permanent, high volatility may be observed in the markets again.
