While there were strong increases in Bitcoin and US stock futures on Tuesday evening, there was a sharp decline in oil prices. The main reason for the activity was US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Truth Social.
Positive reflection on cryptocurrency and stock market futures
Bitcoin hit $72,699 with a 5 percent increase during the day. With the upward movement of the leading cryptocurrency, the CoinDesk 20 Index, which reflects the overall market, increased by 5 percent to 2,034 points. An increase of 1.9 percent was recorded in S&P 500 futures and 2.2 percent in Nasdaq futures. Futures contracts based on the Dow Jones index also made a premium of approximately 1.8 percent.
In recent weeks, the expectation of a possible large-scale military intervention against Iran has reduced risk appetite and increased volatility, especially in the cryptocurrency market. However, after the expected attack was suspended, it was observed that investors turned to risky assets again.
Sharp fall in oil prices, statements about the Middle East
The barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) type crude oil lost more than 10 percent in value, falling to 95 dollars. There was a similar decline in Brent oil. This activity was associated with statements that the possible conflict in the Middle East was postponed for at least two weeks.
In his post on Truth Social, Trump said, “I have agreed to suspend bombardments and attacks against Iran for two weeks. This will be a bilateral ceasefire. So far, all military objectives have been achieved and significant progress has been made towards a long-term peace agreement with Iran.”
The Iranian side also confirmed the ceasefire. In the statement made by the country, it was stated that “If the attacks against Iran are stopped, our Armed Forces will suspend defense operations.” The statement also stated that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz can pass for two weeks in coordination with the Iranian army and taking into account technical restrictions.
Javier Bias, known for his analyzes in the field of energy and commodities, stated in his assessment published on the social media platform X that both sides confirmed the ceasefire, but pointed out that the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on some technical limitations and military coordination.
Uncertainties regarding Iran have been putting pressure on risky assets for about a month; During this period, Bitcoin remained mostly horizontal and its rise was limited due to the increase in oil prices. The sudden change in the market’s direction led investors to reconsider their positions.
With the rapid rise in the last 24 hours, nearly $600 million of leveraged futures positions were liquidated on crypto exchanges. More than $400 million of this amount came from short positions by investors betting that prices would fall.
While this situation indicated that the upward expectation was strengthened, the liquidation of short positions played an important role in pushing the prices even higher.
