The latest U.S. manufacturing data is influencing expectations around the timing of the next crypto market cycle.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, its highest level since 2022. The index has now stayed above 50 for three straight months, indicating expansion after nearly three years of contraction, the longest stretch in more than a century of ISM records.
ISM Expansion Aligns With Past Crypto Rallies
The shift into expansion territory is drawing attention due to its historical alignment with crypto market cycles. The previous crypto bull run coincided with similar macroeconomic recoveries in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
These periods followed rising manufacturing activity and improving liquidity conditions, which supported risk assets across markets.
The recent expansion follows about 36 months of contraction in U.S. manufacturing. This period coincided with tighter financial conditions and weaker performance in many digital assets, particularly altcoins.
Despite this environment, Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark, indicating sustained demand even during unfavorable macro conditions.
Raoul Pal Links Crypto to Business Cycle
Macro investor Raoul Pal tied crypto performance directly to broader economic cycles.
“It is always the business cycle… Bitcoin is basically following the ISM.”
He said the current cycle may differ from the traditional four-year structure linked to Bitcoin halving events.
“This one is a five-year cycle… and it tells us the ISM should peak by 2026.”
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Two Scenarios for the Next Crypto Bull Run
Market expectations are currently shaped by two primary frameworks.
Traditional cycle model:
Bitcoin halving events remain central to this view. After the April 2020 halving, Bitcoin rallied within about 200 days and reached peak levels in 2021. A similar pattern followed the April 2024 halving, with a consolidation phase before new highs in 2025. Based on this trend, the next major peak later in the cycle, potentially extending into 2026 or beyond.
Macro-driven model:
The return of PMI above 50 points indicates improving economic conditions. Expansion in manufacturing activity has historically aligned with increased liquidity, which supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Under this view, the current cycle could progress faster than traditional timelines.
A survey by Coinbase stated:
“74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise within the next 12 months, while 73 percent plan to increase exposure to digital assets in 2026.”
Liquidity and External Risks Remain Factors
The shift into expansion may indicate improving liquidity conditions, particularly if it leads to lower interest rates. In previous cycles, easing financial conditions supported broader participation in crypto markets.
At the same time, external factors continue to influence the outlook. Geopolitical developments and regulatory timelines in the United States remain relevant to market conditions.
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