Bitcoin’s price movements from past to present showed a picture in which it mostly broke new records and did not easily return to old peaks. There has been a remarkable change in this trend recently. Even in sudden declines after prices rose significantly for a long time, there was usually no retracement to the previous bull season peaks.
After hitting a record high of $126,000 in the 2023-2025 bull market, Bitcoin has been moving around $70,000 for months. This price level is almost at the same point as the peak of the 2019-2022 period. That is, the market has retreated to a previous peak, unlike the old usual rise.
The market is maturing, rapid rises are behind us
In previous bear markets, such as 2014 and 2018, the Bitcoin price never dropped to its previous peak. In 2022, a fall below $ 20,000, which was considered the peak of the previous bull cycle, was considered an exception, and this situation was explained by the resolution of market frauds and excessive leverage.
This time, there is no extraordinary development or crisis behind the withdrawal. Bitcoin has fallen to the highest level it has ever seen before in the natural cycle of the market. New bull markets no longer result in as rapid and large increases as in the past. A significant capital inflow is required to raise prices much higher than previous records.
As Bitcoin becomes more expensive, it is historically observed that the rate of price increase slows down. The increase from 2011 to 2013 increased the price 38 times. While the peak in 2017 was 16 times higher than in 2013; The 2021 rise was nearly three times the 2017 level. The record in 2025 reflects a less than double increase compared to 2021.
The impact of institutions and changes in investor behavior
Growing institutional participation in the Bitcoin market and the development of derivative markets prevent sharp price fluctuations. With futures, investors have now begun to take part in the market with different strategies regarding not only price rise but also volatility and timing.
Before 2020, the market was driven mainly by buy-sell transactions; Individual investors who believed in the rise played a more prominent role. Wide participation today also limits volatile movements.
‘Previous peaks working as support’, which is frequently emphasized in technical analysis, also makes sense in terms of behavioral economics. Former highs form an important reference point in investor psychology. When the price returns to the previous peak, investors who missed this opportunity in the past start buying again, which may trigger a possible new rise.
A strong recovery around $70,000 could be considered a sign of a process similar to the upward trend that started after the bottom at $20,000 at the end of 2022. However, considering the increasing maturity and capital need, new rises are expected to occur in a more scaled and controlled manner.
