The US bond market, which had a positive start to the week, remained under pressure from the rapid rise in oil prices. While this move directly affected global financial markets, most of the gains made in cryptocurrencies were returned.
Interest rate messages from Fed Chairman Powell
In his speech at Harvard University, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is not currently focusing on short-term oil price shocks and that inflation expectations remain “strongly under control.” Powell’s assessment created relief in the bond market by reducing rising concerns about the policy rate.
The interest rate on the US 10-year treasury bond decreased by nine basis points to 4.35 percent. In short-term bonds, where shopping was intense, the two-year yield decreased by eight basis points to 3.83 percent. Expectations regarding the possibility of an interest rate increase also decreased rapidly. The possibility of multiple interest rate increases in 2026 has decreased significantly compared to last week and has been reduced to only five percent.
Sales-oriented trend in the markets
US stocks, which started the day strongly, also changed direction in the following hours. While Nasdaq completed the day with a loss of 0.75 percent, the loss in value in the S&P 500 was 0.4 percent. A similar trend was observed in the cryptocurrency market. Although Bitcoin rose at the beginning of the week, this momentum could not be maintained and it fell back to $ 66,500. Thus, an almost horizontal trend has occurred in the last 24 hours.
The main factor that put pressure on risk appetite was the increase in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 5.3 percent during the day and approached the level of 105 dollars per barrel. After the war that started in Iran, the WTI price rose above $100 for a short time; However, for the first time since 2022, the closing price was seen to exceed the $ 100 band.
The fluctuation in financial markets had an impact especially on inflation expectations and movements in the bond market. Powell’s last message:
“We may face a question about what to do next. Now is not the time for this question because the economic effects are not yet clear.”
He pointed out that he gave the message that there would be no rush to increase interest rates in the near term.
The US Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to sudden changes in oil prices in the short term signaled that uncertainty for investors may continue for a while. While fluctuations were observed in the stock and cryptocurrency markets during the same period, investors continue to closely follow the Fed’s policies.
