Although Bitcoin has remained under pressure in recent weeks due to weakening market momentum, several technical indicators stand out that suggest the pace of the sell-off is starting to slow. While the price remains balanced around $66,000 with hopes of a short-term recovery, investors have turned to resistance areas to continue the rise in the medium term. Market participants are specifically discussing whether the $68,000 to $75,000 range will be retested. However, ETF-related developments, and particularly the performance of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), appear to be impacting investor psychology.
Technical indicators point to critical support levels in BTC
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is trading in the support zone between $66,000 and $68,000. Price levels in this range have begun to stand out as an important entry zone for short-term transactions. According to a trading recommendation shared in the market, a long position was opened at $66,732, while the stop loss level was positioned at approximately $65,507; The first target was set as $68,166. If an upward movement occurs in line with market expectations, it is evaluated that a potential path can be opened up to $ 75,997 as the second target.
It is seen that this risk-return balance comes to the fore frequently in the technical chart. Recurring resistance in the $72,000–$74,000 range remains a strong obstacle to the upside. While a cautious stance stands out in short-term forecasts, caution is maintained in upward expectations unless there is a permanent increase in transaction volume.
Possible bearish signals and ETF dynamics on weekly charts
Longer-term technical evaluations indicate that the market has not yet been able to choose a clear up or down direction. The “bearish bat” harmonic formation determined on the weekly charts highlighted that there may be a return area for Bitcoin price in the range of $ 48,000-50,000 in the medium term. It is noted that this formation, tested with past price movements, can achieve a high degree of success when supported by volume.
However, not all market experts share the view that this pattern is a definitive warning. According to some analyses, it is emphasized that signals given on a weekly basis can often create misleading bottoms. It can be difficult to achieve results in technical formations that are not supported by price movement and transaction volume.
ETF dynamics also continue to affect the Bitcoin price. iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) closed down over 47 percent from its 2024 high. The fact that the fund is currently below the key moving averages indicates that selling pressure is continuing. However, momentum indicators such as RSI and stochastic may reach the oversold zone, paving the way for short-term recoveries.
On-chain data and tight market structure may drive price
In the general atmosphere of the market, it stands out that institutional demand entering the cryptocurrency market has weakened due to ETF fund outflows. However, on-chain data also shows the change in investor behavior. Bitcoin inflows from short-term investors to major exchanges hit the lowest level since 2018, at approximately 25,000 BTC. In previous cycles, such declines have been associated with a decline in panic selling.
Technical formations also point out that the price is trading in an increasingly narrow range within a tightening triangle structure. Support near the $66,000 level remains intact, while upper resistance extends to $67,400 and above to $70,000. If the price overcomes this resistance with a strong volume, it can be considered that a new movement area may be opened towards $ 75,000. On the other hand, a break below $ 66,000 may accelerate the downward pressure and bring the levels first to $ 60,000 and then to $ 55,000.
Technical indicators spanning different time frames continue to produce signals that diverge from each other. While the moving averages on daily charts are still giving a sell signal, oscillators such as Williams %R and CCI are in the oversold territory. This indicates that we have entered a phase in which buying may become stronger during the correction process.
The overall picture indicates that Bitcoin continues to seek direction in the near term and it is important for the price to maintain the leading support levels. In order for upward expectations to come true, strong volume and new demand entries must occur. While the cautious stance in the market continues, it is important to follow clear signs for the beginning of a new trend.
