It is the last days of March and as Trump said, the war did not end in 4 weeks and the chances of it ending in 6 weeks seem slim. Bitcoin price Sunday is a bad day for altcoins as they fall to the base of 66 thousand. glassnode Data shows that even if there is activity on the buyer side, this is not enough for a return.
On-Chain crypto signal
New buyers are on the scene, albeit weakly, but the cost base is in the 60-70 thousand dollar range, where the price has been stalled for a long time. Accepting that the supply accumulation in this range is remarkable, Glassnode analysts argue that the density is not at the required level. In general, historical examples tell us that more demand is required for strong recoveries.
“While supply accumulation in this range is notable, this concentration is weaker compared to historical examples seen before a strong recovery. The accumulation structure is positive in form, but not yet so in magnitude.” – Glassnode
On the other hand, we mentioned today that the appetite of US-based investors has decreased significantly. Coinbase Premium recovered after being in the negative zone for a long time and stabilized in the negative zone again with the recent decline. Moreover, it is unclear what the Iran issue will evolve into and the USA is sending more soldiers and ships to the region.
What are the predictions?
Some experts disagree with Glassnode. For example, @OnchainDecoded mentioned that the realized price of $53k constitutes an important base reference and long-term investor profitability is in good shape. However, considering the really active supply in the last 7 years, the figure corresponds to 72,500 dollars, not 53 thousand. @OnchainDecoded is wrong when we exclude dead and dormant supply.
“Short-term investors (STH) are at a loss compared to the cost base, long term investors (LTH) is still in high profit—historically this divergence is the point at which patient accumulation occurs just before the recovery. “The bottom points of both the 2019 and 2022 cycles showed the same picture.”
Rohan J, on the other hand, thinks that the markets have weakened due to the war and global macroeconomic developments and that we will see a relief rally as the war cools down.
SugSsak wrote that compared to clusters in November 2023 or January 2024, buyers remain extremely weak and capital will not be mobilized without losing $60 thousand.
Finally, MeasuredEdge pointed out an important detail that should be kept in mind in a possible fake rise scenario.
“What’s notable is how much of STH’s cost base is concentrated around $85,000, a massive resistance wall of at-the-money buyers who will likely sell in any recovery rally.”
