According to the assessment of asset management company Bitwise, stocks are more vulnerable to recent macroeconomic fluctuations as Bitcoin has already priced in the effects of the recently tightened monetary policy. The fact that Bitcoin fell by 23.7 percent this year and fell below the level of 70 thousand dollars stands out as an important indicator of the change in risk perception in the market.
Macro developments had different reflections on Bitcoin and stocks
In recent weeks, supply problems in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the tension between the USA and Iran and the increasing geopolitical risk have caused energy prices to rise. This increase in oil and natural gas also increased inflation expectations. In previous months, investors had high confidence that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. However, with recent developments, this expectation has been replaced by uncertainty. As a matter of fact, on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year has turned from almost certain to doubtful. In fact, the markets currently show that the probability of no interest rate cut has increased to 40 percent.
Bitwise senior research analyst Luke Deans emphasized the direct relationship between energy prices and inflation, stating that the recent increases have led to a meaningful change in monetary policy expectations. Deans stated that the interest rate cuts expected for the year were almost completely shelved.
Luke Deans explained, “Energy prices are closely linked to inflation expectations. The recent increase has caused a significant change in monetary policy pricing, and the interest rate cuts expected during the year have turned into a major tightening.”
Bitcoin stands out in market dynamics
While the S&P 500 index has fallen by approximately 8 percent in the last month, according to Bitwise, Bitcoin has actually priced these risks in advance. Bitcoin, which has been in a downward trend since October 2025, stands out as an asset that reacts quickly to the cash flow in the market and investors’ risk appetite. Deans stated that Bitcoin responds to macroeconomic conditions more quickly than traditional assets and begins to reflect the tight financial environment in advance.
Deans evaluated: “Bitcoin, as an asset that is highly sensitive to internal dynamics and liquidity, often responds earlier to changes in risk appetite. This feature shows that digital assets price financial tightening before traditional assets.”
In one indicator, the Mayer Multiple, which measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s spot price to its 200-day average, has remained in the lower regions of its historical range since January. According to Deans, this indicates that general expectations in the cryptocurrency markets have been redefined. Stocks, on the other hand, were at higher valuation levels than at the beginning of the year, so they were able to react later to changes in macro conditions.
Deans commented, “Assets that have experienced significant depreciation generally become more resistant to downward fluctuations as leverage and speculative positions decrease. Markets that are priced above without this process may remain more sensitive to negative developments.”
Bitwise also stated that Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market is increasing and high correlations are observed in the price movements of altcoins. According to the company, this chart indicates that the market is increasingly driven by a single factor; This factor stands out directly as the price of Bitcoin.
