After Google introduced the new quantum chip called Willow in December 2024, the cryptocurrency industry’s view of this development was that the threat was still many years away. Although the SHA-256 mining algorithm and ECDSA signature system used in Bitcoin could theoretically be broken by quantum computers, it was stated that existing chips require millions of physical qubits in practice and Willow only has 105 qubits. However, in the meantime, Google has shown that it has begun to take the risks seriously.
Post-quantum migration step from Google and the current preparation of the industry
Google has publicly shared its goal of strengthening its authentication services with post-quantum cryptography by 2029. The company pointed out that such a transition is now more realistic, thanks to advances in hardware and error correction technologies. Post-quantum signature protection has started to be used in the new Android 17 version offered by the company, and similarly post-quantum key exchange support is offered in the Chrome browser. Google Cloud provides post-quantum solutions to enterprise customers.
The difference of quantum computers compared to classical computers is that they can process information on many more possibilities at the same time by processing information through qubits instead of bits. Although this advantage is not obvious in everyday work, quantum devices have a theoretical advantage, especially in areas that form the basis of modern cryptography, such as the factorization of large prime numbers. It is stated that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can decipher passwords that classical machines cannot decipher in a short time.
The ECDSA algorithm is used for transaction confirmation in Bitcoin; It is precisely these types of encryption systems that Google sees as risky. A large enough quantum computer that can run Shor’s algorithm is capable of revealing the private key of wallets with public key information. Thus, public keys exposed on the network can be the target of an attacker.
Vitalik Buterin, one of the co-founders of Ethereum, announced that shortly before the launch of the Willow chip, experts in the field increased their caution about quantum computers and emphasized the need to act quickly on this issue.
Post-quantum preparations in Ethereum and Bitcoin ecosystems
The Ethereum ecosystem has been conducting structured engineering efforts for over eight years to prepare for the post-quantum era. Ethereum Foundation has clearly laid out its road map; Developer test networks (devnet) are published regularly, and the transition is aimed to spread to all layers with four major hard forks planned. With the pq.ethereum.org platform that the foundation works on, many stages have been detailed, from the key registration system to the post-quantum consensus model of the entire network.
On the Bitcoin side, there is no similar scale coordination and long-term work yet. Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and slow decision-making processes stand out as obstacles to a rapid transition. Even Bitcoin’s last major cryptocurrency upgrade, Taproot, was reportedly discussed for years before being implemented. It has been stated that the quantum-focused suggestions currently presented to the community have not found a serious response from leading developers.
Castle Island Ventures founder Nic Carter pointed out that there is still a lack of a holistic strategy and calendar in the Bitcoin ecosystem, citing Ethereum’s road map as an example. Carter stated that there is no intensive work and a clear road map against quantum in Bitcoin, while Ethereum is moving more consciously on this issue.
CoinShares, one of the leading research companies in the market, emphasized that, as of now, the number of addresses in Bitcoin that are sensitive enough to cause serious market shock at once is low. Assets held at old addresses called Pay-to-Public-Key are scattered across hundreds of wallets; Therefore, targeting each of them is considered to be costly and slow.
International standards organizations, especially NIST, crypto asset platforms and leading technology giants agree that the quantum threat will grow over time. While the Ethereum Foundation is in a position to accelerate the migration process after eight years of preparation, Google has set the timeline at 2029. In the Bitcoin community, no collective step has been taken yet; It seems that the results of this approach will take shape in the future.
