The war environment in the Middle East, which has been on the world’s agenda lately, causes sharp price movements in energy markets. Shipment disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions with Iran led to a rapid increase in oil prices. Both inflation concerns and global financial risk perception increased volatility in investment instruments.
The US administration decided to lift some sanctions on Russian oil for a short time in order to compensate for the supply problems in the region. Thanks to this decision, it was aimed to achieve some balance in the energy markets. However, new developments from Eastern Europe at that time complicated the plans.
Ukraine’s attacks and disruptions in oil exports from Russia
The Ukrainian army has carried out drone attacks on ports and refinery facilities in Russia’s Leningrad region in recent weeks. As a result of these operations, approximately 40 percent of Russia’s crude oil export capacity was disabled. Michael Kern, one of the leading editors of the industry, emphasized that the problem is primarily logistics, but there is also a serious risk in supply.
Michael Kern: “In addition to the ongoing war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the disruptions in oil and natural gas production, the disruptions in Russia add a new pressure to energy prices.” he said.
Due to this critical disruption in energy, Brent oil has risen above $100 again in recent weeks. WTI type oil also rose to 94 dollars last week. These developments may cause commodity prices to remain higher for a while.
Volatility and interest expectations in crypto markets
The permanent rise in energy prices seriously affects not only commodity markets but also financial markets. If rising oil prices increase inflation pressure, central banks may increase interest rates again.
The possibility that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in a short time has begun to price in the markets. Transactions in the options market revealed that investors waiting for a new interest rate step in the coming weeks are increasing. A decrease in liquidity and an increase in the cost of borrowing may lead to a decrease in interest in risky assets.
Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies are also affected by this process. In recent days, the bitcoin price has fallen to around $68,500. The leading cryptocurrency, which has lost approximately 2 percent in value in the last 24 hours, remained under pressure in the carefully followed range of $ 65,000-75,000.
