Gold is having one of its worst months in decades. Nine straight losing sessions. A 13% drop in a single month. A 27% collapse from its January all-time high. And yet one of the world’s most prominent gold bulls is not selling. He is buying more and saying the biggest surge in gold’s history is just getting started.
Here is everything you need to know about why gold is falling right now, what comes next and why Peter Schiff thinks this selloff ends at $11,400.
Why Is Gold Falling Today
Gold is trading around $4,350 per ounce on Monday, down 3% on the session and 13.18% lower than one month ago. The metal hit an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026 and has been falling ever since.
The reason is not complicated. The Iran war pushed oil above $112 a barrel. Expensive oil fires up inflation. Inflation forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. High interest rates make U.S. Treasury bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no interest at all. Investors sold gold to buy bonds. Simple as that.
Markets are now pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, a development that would put even more upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on gold in the short term.
The Iran Pause That Did Not Help
President Trump announced Monday that he was postponing strikes on Iran for five days following what he described as productive conversations with Tehran. The news briefly lifted gold before Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency denied any talks had taken place at all, attributing Trump’s retreat to Iran’s threat to target power plants across the entire region.
The mixed signals left markets confused rather than relieved. Gold trimmed some losses but held its downward trajectory, extending the losing streak to nine sessions, the longest run since 2023.
Trading Economics projects gold ending this quarter near $4,499 before recovering toward $4,879 over the next twelve months. That is the consensus. Schiff thinks the consensus is wildly wrong.
Peter Schiff Gold Price Prediction: Why He Sees $11,400
Peter Schiff, one of the most followed voices in precious metals investing, published a historical comparison this week that is getting significant attention across financial markets.
“In the early months of the 2008 financial crisis, gold crashed 32%, about 40% of its prior bull market gain,” Schiff wrote. “After gold bottomed, it surged 178% over the next three years. Gold nearly hit $4,100 today, down 27%, about 40% of its gain since $2,000. A 178% surge from that low puts gold at $11,400.”
The numbers line up almost exactly. Gold’s current drawdown from its January peak mirrors the percentage decline seen at the very start of the 2008 crash, right before the metal began one of the greatest bull runs in its history.
Schiff also pushed back on the narrative that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran would be bad news for gold.
“If the war ends soon, that is negative for gold. But not enough to offset all that is positive,” he wrote. “The government will still pay to replenish the weapons used and rebuild what it destroyed. So there will be larger deficits and more inflation than if the war had never been fought.”
His argument is that the war has permanently worsened the fiscal backdrop regardless of outcome. Bigger deficits, higher inflation, weaker growth and a dollar under structural pressure all point in the same direction for gold over the medium and long term.
“If you were bullish on gold before the war, you should be more bullish now,” Schiff said.
Gold Price Forecast: What the Data Says
Here is where gold stands today against the key benchmarks investors are watching.
Gold is currently trading at $4,462 per ounce. Its all-time high was $5,608 in January 2026. It is down 27% from that peak. It is still up 48.27% compared to one year ago. Trading Economics consensus puts it at $4,499 by the end of the quarter and $4,879 in twelve months. Peter Schiff’s target from the $4,100 low is $11,400.
