Three months ago, Citigroup set a $143,000 Bitcoin target and told investors that 2026 was the year US crypto regulation would finally deliver. Today, the same bank cut that target by $31,000. The reason has nothing to do with Bitcoin itself.
It has everything to do with Washington.
Head of Quantitative Global Macro and DeFi Research Alex Saunders published a note on Monday lowering the bank’s 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $112,000 and its Ethereum estimate to $3,175, down from $4,304.
“Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” Saunders wrote.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,968 and Ethereum at $2,330.
The Clarity Act Is the Entire Story
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House last July with a 294-134 vote. It has been stuck in the Senate Banking Committee since January, after a scheduled markup was pulled at the last minute over disagreements on stablecoin yield rules.
Polymarket traders now put the odds of the bill passing in 2026 at 60%, down from the near-certainty many assumed at the start of the year.
Citi’s note spells out the political mechanics clearly. The bill needs at least seven Senate Democrats to pass. Some Democrats are pushing to bar elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures, an issue that has gained traction given scrutiny of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial project. Analysts say that dynamic could reduce the likelihood that President Trump would sign the bill at all.
Chances shrink further if Democrats gain seats in the November midterms, since Democratic lawmakers remain more divided on overhauling federal rules for crypto.
Also Read: Did the Clarity Act Pass? Not Yet, But Banks Are Already Buying These 8 Altcoins
The Range Citi Is Now Watching
Citi’s revised outlook runs across a wide spectrum. Under a recessionary scenario, the bank sees Bitcoin falling to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. Its bull case, driven by stronger end-investor demand, puts Bitcoin at $165,000 and Ethereum at $4,488. On Ethereum specifically, Citi noted that user activity metrics have been weak but added that stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest over time.
The bank identified $70,000 as the key level for Bitcoin, describing it as the pre-US election price and the likely floor for range-trading as the market waits on legislative news flow. With Bitcoin around $73K today, that floor is closer than the $112,000 target above it.
The Clarity Act has become the single most important variable in Wall Street’s crypto outlook. For now, it is stuck.
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