While Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction market platforms, have recently accelerated their investment search, it is said that their company valuations have reached 20 billion dollars. Regulators in the USA have put new rules on the sector on the agenda, especially after the controversy caused by contracts with Iran.
Investor Request and Media Agreements
Prediction markets operate as digital platforms where participants take positions on whether certain events will occur or not. Polymarket and Kalshi started to stand out in the field of financial technology, especially with their event-oriented contracts and data production. Both platforms have signed large-scale agreements with media and data provider companies with the instant probability data they collect from user transactions. CNBC’s long-term agreement with Kalshi and Dow Jones’ partnership with Polymarket have enabled the data produced by these markets to be used regularly in business news.
Following these partnerships, it was noteworthy that prediction market data turned into a direct source of news and analysis, such as stock prices or surveys. But this visibility has led to tighter legal scrutiny of platforms.
Iran Contracts Created Controversy
The Iran-focused contracts opened in Polymarket at the beginning of 2026 were a critical turning point for the industry. While a total of 529 million dollars was subject to transaction in the contracts regarding the timing of the events, a position was taken at the level of 150 million dollars in the contracts related to the resignation of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The fact that six accounts made a profit of $ 1.2 million in just a few hours raised suspicions of using inside information and gaining unfair advantage.
These publicly disclosed transactions made Polymarket no longer just a product of the crypto world but subject to regulation and state surveillance. US Congress members Mike Levin and Chris Murphy are preparing a new law proposal to limit prediction markets after the discussions about Iran. With this step, which events can be subject to the contract will be determined directly by the legislators. During the same period, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced that they notified the White House budget office to enact a new regulation regarding the scope and supervision of platforms.
Developments indicate that trading sensitive issues, especially military actions and leadership changes, in the markets increases the risk of inside information leakage. To prevent such risks, regulators consider it important to establish clear rules about which contracts will be allowed in prediction markets.
Trust Issues and Disputes on Platforms
One of the biggest problems facing platforms is user trust and transparency. Recently, Kalshi faced a class-action lawsuit for allegedly failing to pay $54 million to users who predicted that the leader would step down before March 1, in contracts filed for the office of Iran’s supreme leader. In the case, it was claimed that Kalshi avoided paying by activating the special provision covering the death situation after the event. The company argued that the rule regarding death in the contracts on the platform was clear for all users and that fees and damages were refunded.
While such disputes create obstacles to the growth of the sector for investors, they raise concerns for regulators that trading the events in the market may lead to the disclosure of state secrets.
While high valuation expectations on Polymarket and Kalshi come to the fore in the shadow of political and regulatory risks, the framework of how prediction markets will function in the USA is expected to become clear in the coming period.
