According to the assessment of cryptocurrency market analysis company CryptoQuant, a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would not directly affect Bitcoin; However, it may create the potential for fluctuation in Bitcoin with a chain effect in global markets. The current structure seen in the crypto derivatives market may have difficulty absorbing such a shock.
The Importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the Markets
Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, one of the world’s most important energy routes. In addition, a significant part of the global LNG trade uses this route. While alternative pipelines remain limited in terms of capacity, there is no fully functioning alternative for a long-term disruption from the strait.
The sudden rise in energy prices is directly reflected in global financial markets. Historically, increases in energy costs are followed by inflation expectations. Central banks have to make a choice between supporting growth and keeping inflation under control. When monetary policy tightens, investors tend to move away from risky assets.
Bitcoin’s Correlation with Global Markets
Bitcoin showed high correlation with classical risky assets with its movements in the post-2020 period. Instead of standing out as a safe haven in global tensions, it generally fluctuated parallel to stocks. Although an increase of around 14 percent was observed in the short term after the Iran crisis, historical data reveal that liquidity generally decreases in the first stage of geopolitical shocks and Bitcoin and other risky assets may experience selling pressure.
CryptoQuant’s analysis included the comment that the impact of this wave on Bitcoin depends on where it is located in the chain. In other words, shocks in the energy market first affect macroeconomic indicators and then risky assets.
Leverage Risk and Data in the Derivative Market
According to the CryptoQuant data set, the open interest metric covering the period between January 2023 and March 2026 shows the total Bitcoin futures on all exchanges. The open position size, which was below 10 billion dollars in 2023, increased to over 45 billion dollars in the 2025 bull period. In its current situation, it continues at the level of 21.8 billion dollars. This figure shows that leveraged positions are still high.
Leveraged transactions opened in the markets are necessarily closed when the price moves in the opposite direction. If a large number of positions are closed in a row, selling pressure can create much more volatility than the selling occurring in spot markets. In a macroeconomic shock, the meltdown of the $21.8 billion open position could cause large fluctuations.
Additionally, funding rate data also shows the direction of the market. Funding rates on perpetual futures remained positive throughout 2024 and 2025, with significant increases during the bull period. However, there has been a negative trend in the funding rate recently, which reveals that short positions have gained weight in the market.
According to CryptoQuant analysis, “The impact of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz on Bitcoin will be shaped by global liquidity, monetary policy responses and the balance of leverage in the derivatives market, beyond the shock in energy prices.”
According to this table, when strong leverage structure and bearish positions work together, the market may face two different scenarios. While a sudden increase causes short positions to be closed and the upward movement accelerates, in case of a negative development, the liquidation of open leveraged positions may increase the downward movement.
