CryptoPatel, one of the crypto analysts, focused on the price analysis of Bitcoin, explaining that in every major market cycle in history, the bottom has generally occurred around $54,400. Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,000, which is approximately 30 percent above the current realized price.
What Does the Real Price Show?
The realized price reflects the average value calculated based on the price at which each token in the Bitcoin network last moved on-chain. This indicator determines the total cost basis of Bitcoin investors. When the spot price falls below this value, most investors take a loss position. Historically, this represents a critical threshold where selling pressure diminishes and the reaccumulation process begins.
In CryptoPatel’s analysis, it was seen that the major bottoms in the 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022 periods occurred at or just near the realized price level. Each time the market price falls below the cost base, a cyclical bottom occurs and new expansion phases begin.
The View Revealed by Monthly Charts
Bitcoin’s monthly index chart on TradingView offers projections starting from 2014 until 2029. The chart includes a price channel in the form of a green band with three moving averages. Periods when the price touches or falls below this band are evident in the visual, and these times coincide with long-term recoveries immediately following major declines.
In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has been moving above the realized price channel. The chart also highlights a “fair value gap” between $47,000 and $62,000. This region draws attention as an area that has not yet been filled in the market after the upward movement in the 2024-2025 period. Resistance is shown with a red line drawn diagonally from top to bottom.
The Importance of the $54,400 Level
The current price is around $54,400. Bitcoin price is approximately 30 percent above this. According to this table, the average investor is in a significantly profitable position. In previous cycles, bottom formation occurred when the difference between the spot price and the realized price closed or reversed.
CryptoPatel views Bitcoin falling back to $54,400 as a “generational opportunity.” Blockforce Capital’s analysis similarly identifies the $45,000 to $60,000 range as a high-probability accumulation zone. The two analyzes point to similar levels with different methods: CryptoPatel emphasizes the realized price, while Blockforce Capital uses MVRV Z-Score, 200-week moving average and bearish patterns as a basis.
Currently, the distance between the price and the realized price is approximately 24 percent. Whether this gap will be closed or not will depend on whether the market can sustain the current recovery.
Limits of the Historical Pattern
Although a similar pattern has been observed in the past four major cycles, there is no certainty that this situation will repeat in the next period. The fact that there are currently $8.2 trillion in money market funds in the market, low redemption rates in corporate ETFs, and purchases made by companies with their cash reserves indicate that the current demand base may be stronger than in previous periods. If these new structural factors take effect, Bitcoin may not need to retreat to the realized price level.
This pattern, which has worked successfully in four cycles, may develop differently under current market conditions.
