Bitcoin peaked at $126,230 on October 6. It has been falling for 159 days since. To most holders, that feels like an eternity. To anyone who has looked at the historical data, it barely registers.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost laid out the numbers. In the 2017 cycle, it took 1,180 days before Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. In 2021, it was 1,093 days. In 2025, that compressed to 849 days. The current correction sits at 159 days. By every prior measure, this is early.
The Cycle Is Getting Shorter, But 2025 Already Broke the Rules
The data shows a clear pattern: the time between Bitcoin all-time highs is shrinking with each cycle. But 2025 did something no previous cycle had done. It produced a new ATH before a halving, not after.
Darkfost attributes this directly to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. That single structural change pulled institutional capital into Bitcoin in a way that disrupted the halving-led cyclicality the market had relied on for over a decade.
His view on the halving itself is worth noting.
“I do not think the halving itself is the main driver behind the creation of a new ATH,” Darkfost wrote. “The end of bear market trends are usually already well advanced before the halving occurs.”
The halving still matters, he argues, but through its long-term effect of reducing miner sell pressure, not as the trigger most people treat it as.
Also Read: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $767M in 5 Days: Why Isn’t the BTC Price Moving?
The Rule Change That Could Be Bigger Than the ETF
While the cycle debate plays out on-chain, a regulatory shift is building in Washington that Coinbureau CEO Nic says deserves serious attention.
Under current Basel rules, Bitcoin carries a 1,250% risk weight – meaning banks must hold capital equivalent to their entire BTC exposure. As Nic put it, that makes it “almost impossible for banks to offer services around BTC.”
The Fed announced this week that a proposal is coming on how these Basel rules will be implemented in the US, opening a 90-day public comment window. The proposal is not specifically a Bitcoin rewrite – it covers broader capital standards for the largest banks. But the comment window creates a direct opening to challenge Bitcoin’s treatment.
“If Bitcoin’s treatment improves even slightly,” Nic wrote, “it could open the door for banks to finally integrate BTC into the financial system. That’s a huge potential liquidity unlock.”
Spot ETFs changed the cycle in 2024. If Basel changes, banks could be the next structural catalyst. At 159 days into this correction, that timing matters.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $70,689, down 2.37% on the day.
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