The new Basel capital rules, which the US Federal Reserve will put to vote next week, are seen as an important turning point in banks’ view of Bitcoin. According to the Fed’s statement, a 90-day public comment period will begin after the vote. The regulation in question could be critical in terms of how banks will evaluate holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets and whether they can create a closer working environment with crypto.
Current Situation in Basel Criteria
Basel’s current framework for crypto assets divides banks’ exposure to crypto into two main groups. Of these categories, Group 2 includes higher capital requirements, especially for unsecured digital assets such as Bitcoin. If a bank cannot meet clearly defined hedging criteria, a risk weight of 1250 is applied to such assets. This significantly increases the cost of directly holding Bitcoin.
The rules require that crypto positions exceeding 1 percent of the capital, called Tier 1, be subject to much more severe conditions. If the rate exceeds 2 percent, all these exposures are pulled into the more severe group. Therefore, it is becoming very difficult with current regulations, especially for large US banks, to add meaningful amounts of Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
Political Conflicts and Banking Relations
Relations between the crypto industry and banks in the USA have become even more tense with the impasse of the Clarity Act. This month, US President Donald Trump directly targeted banks as responsible for the delay in the financial sector. Trump’s following words attracted attention:
The Banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful Crypto Agenda.
This statement is interpreted as meaning that the administration, which wants to pave the way for crypto-supported policies, may put more pressure on banks legally and economically. However, in the actual process, it seems that the main agenda is now focused on the economic necessities of crypto rather than the legal obstacles to banks’ access to crypto.
Possible Consequences in Global and US Contexts
The Basel Committee announced that it would review the standards for crypto assets in an accelerated manner at the end of 2025. Accordingly, bank exposure to crypto remains limited globally, and the sector is still largely traded outside the traditional financial system. However, this picture may change with the new Fed proposal.
Depending on possible scenarios, the Fed draft could facilitate some hedged or lower-risk Bitcoin transactions. In such a case, banks could further integrate into Bitcoin in areas such as custody, financing and market making. On the other hand, if the proposed rules maintain the current strict approach, large banks will again avoid carrying significant Bitcoin positions onto their balance sheets.
Such restrictions make it difficult for banks to manage Bitcoin in parallel with their classical assets. In the long term, whether the United States will position Bitcoin at the center or the edge of the financial infrastructure may depend on these capital policies regarding the banking sector. The draft that the Fed will present next week will show how the US’s approach to the crypto and banking relationship will change.
